Preview: UFC Fight Night 224 Prelims

Middleweights

Makhmud Muradov (25-8) vs. Bryan Barberena (18-10)
Odds: Muradov (-315), Barberena (+245)

Muradov is still a fun talent, but it does feel like he's lost all his momentum over the last few years. Muradov's UFC debut win over Alessio Di Chirico wasn't particularly impressive, but the Uzbekistan representative followed that up with a scintillating knockout of Trevor Smith, showing the impressively sharp and violent boxing that "Mach" can bring to the table. 2020 was a lost year for Muradov between injuries and travel issues, and another impressive knockout of Andrew Sanchez gave way to two straight losses, as he was unable to keep either Gerald Meerschaert or Caio Borralho at bay and got outwrestled— and tapped out by Meerschaert—as a result. Between the losses and the inactivity— the Sanchez fight was now about two and a half years ago—Muradov has gone from top prospect to afterthought, but a win here over Barberena would give him a solid amount of momentum given Barberena's relatively high profile as of late. Barberena has had a long and winding UFC career as this point, initially playing spoiler against more highly touted prospects like Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves before settling in as a blood-and-guts action fighter, a run that included a 2019 fight of the year contender against Vicente Luque.

The Luque fight figured to lead to a career peak for Barberena as an exciting fan favorite, but it looked for a while that it might be the last relevant fight of his career; he looked flat in a subsequent knockout loss to Randy Brown, and after spending the next few years dealing with a series of both career- and life-threatening injuries, a flat loss to Jason Witt suggested that Barberena's body may have been through too much for him to ever rebound. But despite being clearly physically diminished, Barberena has improved technically while also still being ridiculously difficult to put away, a combination that somehow led to him fighting a series of well-known veterans in the highest-profile fights of his career. He was able to score wins over Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler before dropping losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson, all in prominent main card spots. As a result, this fight against Muradov serves as a step back, with the additional wrinkle that Barberena is surprisingly moving up to middleweight, which seems like an odd move— Barberena didn't have a particularly large frame for the welterweight division, and also doesn't figure to find himself as the much faster fighter even against larger competition. That's the main concern here, as from a stylistic standpoint this pairing appears to favor the American, who has both the durability and aptitude to march through Muradov's offense and find some effective pressure. But while Barberena could blow this fight open if he can consistently track Muradov down, the read is that Muradov brings enough size and speed to the table that he can keep Barberena at bay more often than not and pick away with his offense, even if this is unlikely to rise much above a simmer. The pick is Muradov via decision.

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Grant vs. Marcos
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Muradov vs. Barberena
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