Flyweights
Alexandre Pantoja (22-4) vs. Askar Askarov (11-0-1)ODDS: Pantoja (-200), Askarov (+170)
Pantoja is reportedly on call in case something goes wrong in the main event, and he is certainly worthy of the opportunity. The top seed on the 2016 flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” the Brazilian has basically been as promised in his proper UFC career: He has won a lot more than he has lost and brought a ton of violence along the way. “The Cannibal” fights like an absolute maniac when pressed into doing so, and that has been particularly apparent in his last four fights. Deiveson Figueiredo was the one opponent insane enough to go toe-to-toe with Pantoja for three rounds and come out with the win, but Yuta Sasaki, Wilson Reis and Matt Schnell were all turned back within a round, often in brutal fashion. There have been moments when Pantoja has obviously been trying to take a more structured and calm approach rather than trying to destroy his opponents after their first successful attempt at offense, but it says a lot about him that he may not even do that to strike championship gold. To that end, he is likely lurking as next in line for whoever the new champion turns out to be, assuming he can get past Askarov.
Russia’s Askarov has had a promising first two fights in the UFC. Primarily a scrambling submission specialist, the “Bullet” showed off that part of his game against Brandon Moreno in his UFC debut; and while Askarov was lucky to escape with a draw on the scorecards, that performance looks better and better, with Moreno having turned into a true flyweight contender. Askarov showed off a bit more against Tim Elliott, namely the ability to cause some damage on the feet, but the bread and butter of his game remains the same. As the UFC continues to refill its flyweight division, Askarov should continue to make some noise, and a win here would be huge in terms of making his way into the title picture.
This looks like a rough matchup for Askarov. For one, he may not want to take his usual approach against Pantoja. Askarov is usually more than willing to get in bad positions on the ground in order to seek out more advantageous ones, but Pantoja has a strong ground game and a lot of finishing ability of his own. The larger concern is that Askarov looked uncomfortable against Moreno when the Mexican fighter decided to get wild and throw down, and Moreno is nowhere near as dangerous as Pantoja in that phase of the game. Askarov may have some success for as long as Pantoja stays measured, but history shows that as soon as this starts to become a tough fight for Pantoja, he will focus on going for the kill—and he will probably get it. The pick is Pantoja via first-round knockout.
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