Preview: UFC Fight Night 149 ‘Overeem vs. Oleynik’

Women’s Flyweights

Roxanne Modafferi (22-15) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (7-0)

ODDS: Shevchenko (-355), Modafferi (+295)

The UFC’s fledgling women’s flyweight division finds itself in serious need of prospects, but it is a bit odd that one of the best of them is Shevchenko, the older sister of current 125-pound champion Valentina Shevchenko. The older Shevchenko comes from the same muay Thai background, which shines through in her style. While Valentina is more likely to outwrestle her opponents as needed, Antonina seems to be more comfortable taking things to the clinch and inflicting violence there. As with Valentina, Antonina seems to be most comfortable -- if not always most effective -- slowing things down and outstriking her opponents from a distance. After a workmanlike win over Ji Yeon Kim in her UFC debut, Antonina gets a big step up in competition against a tough veteran in Modafferi. A win figures to make her a contender, but given the identity of the champion, it remains unclear what that means.

It is impressive that Modafferi is still improving her game, given that she has spent over 15 years as a professional fighter. Thanks to her affable nature and “Happy Warrior” persona, Modafferi was one of the more beloved figures in women’s MMA as it started to break out stateside, but she soon hit a wall in terms of professional success. Modafferi is not much of an athlete, and her grappling-focused game failed to age well in terms of effectiveness. Modafferi was simply at a loss as better athletes and wrestlers came into the sport and could shut her down, at least until a move to Las Vegas and a new camp turned around her career. Modafferi soon developed a herky-jerky striking game that, while not particularly pretty, was suddenly much more effective, and with that came an opened-up game. Modafferi now has multiple threats to her offense and looks physically stronger at flyweight, making her whole approach hum when it gets going. There is still a clear ceiling in terms of athleticism, but Modafferi has honed her craft to a point where she is as dangerous as ever.

This is a clear striker-versus-grappler matchup. Shevchenko should look to keep this fight at range, but honestly, she is not the best at dictating that range. She looked like an absolute destroyer against an overmatched Jaimee Nievera on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, but Kim managed to charge forward and bull “Pantera” into the clinch a bunch during Shevchenko’s proper UFC debut. Shevchenko does not have the one-shot power to scare off Modafferi, so honestly, the veteran should be able to get inside when she tries to take this fight to the mat. Of course, the issue is what happens when Modafferi gets there, as Shevchenko is more than comfortable unleashing some violence from the clinch. However, Modafferi has proven to be more than capable when it comes to getting opponents to the mat, so she may have a surprising amount of success. The athleticism gap might just be too much for Modafferi to overcome, but she looks to be worth the flier. The pick is Modafferi via second-round submission.

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