Featherweights
Luis Pena (5-1) vs. Steven Peterson (17-7)ODDS: Pena (-290), Peterson (+245)
Judging by this card placement, the UFC still sees Luis Pena as someone worth investing in, and it is easy to see why. Pena’s “Violent Bob Ross” persona -- complete with ginger afro -- catches the eye, and at his best, Pena’s ability to put a beatdown on his opponent is quite impressive. Pena looked to be the intended favorite on the lightweight bracket on Season 27 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but a foot injury derailed those plans and Pena’s last bout, a loss to eventual season winner Mike Trizano, raised some red flags. Pena was absolutely massive at lightweight and found his best success physically overwhelming opponents in grappling exchanges, but against a decent athlete with a well-practiced game like Trizano, the lack of connective tissue in Pena’s style became apparent. All the grappling skill in the world is not all that helpful if you cannot get the fight where you want it. It is worth remembering that Pena is only six fights into his pro career, so the ceiling remains high, but the UFC has a bad tendency to chew up prospects and spit them out. Add in that this is a surprising cut to 145 pounds for Pena -- at 6-foot-3, he will be a sight to see -- and winning this bout against Peterson becomes extremely crucial.
Peterson came to the UFC through Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Although he lost a controversial decision to Benito Lopez on the show, a fun fight put him on the UFC radar and earned him a contract shortly thereafter. Through two UFC bouts, Peterson’s proven to be a fringe talent but an entertaining one. He is a tough, straight-ahead brawler who looks to push a pace on his opponent and keeps moving forward. The whole package is not too amazing, but in an environment where the UFC is picking up more and more raw prospects like Pena, Peterson can easily make a career out of serving as an exciting gatekeeper.
While Pena is the more interesting prospect, a lot of this fight probably depends on Peterson and his ability to fight outside of his comfort zone. If Peterson can fight from range and force Pena to chase him around for a bit, that is a winning formula. Pena has not shown much of an ability to track down opponents to get his grappling game going, and this weight cut may drain all of his cardio. However, the likelier scenario is that Peterson fights his usual aggressive, hard-charging style that allows Pena to get his hands on him. From there, Pena’s massive size and scrambling ability should carry the day. The pick is Pena via first-round submission.
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