Welterweights
Danny Roberts (16-3) vs. Claudio Henrique da Silva (12-1)ODDS: Silva (-150), Roberts (+130)
It took some time, but England’s Roberts has finally carved out a niche for himself as an action welterweight on these European cards. A lot was made of Roberts’ boxing experience leading into his UFC debut, so it was a surprise when he won that bout by choking Nathan Coy unconscious. That has basically been the blueprint. Roberts’ slick boxing remains his bread and butter, but if an opponent decides to take things to the mat, he has shown enough scrambling ability to be competent and hang tough. What holds Roberts back is a lack of durability, particularly for the style to which he adheres. Mike Perry managed to ignite a war and eventually break Roberts via attrition, while Nordine Taleb’s gigantic frame allowed the Frenchman to simply kick through Roberts’ defenses and leave him loopy. Roberts is older and more experienced than his reputation -- he is 31 years old and almost a decade into his pro career -- so there is probably no grand breakthrough coming. However, Roberts is still an underrated talent who can put on a show, and he figures to do so against Silva.
A Brazilian who has spent a ton of time training in England, Silva was part of the UFC’s 2014 initiative to sign seemingly everyone it could as part of its international expansion. Early returns were good: Silva won an unmemorable decision over Bradley Scott, then spammed takedowns to pick up a win over Leon Edwards -- a victory that only continues to look better over time. Thanks to a cascade of injuries, it was three and a half years before Silva had his next fight. It was obviously a curiosity as to how Silva would look in his return bout against Taleb, and the answer was much the same. Silva continued to pick his spots to crash in for takedowns and eventually created the chance to show off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, earning the rear-naked choke submission when Taleb foolishly decided to attempt a leglock. A win here against Roberts would fully cement Silva’s return to prominence, so long as there is not another three-and-a-half-year layoff.
If nothing else, this should be an all-action affair. Silva’s style is sheer aggression, while Roberts is more than willing to throw down and trade. However, the key to this fight will be how well Roberts can handle Silva’s constant stream of takedown attempts, and that part of the fight remains a question mark. Silva is probably the best overall grappler Roberts has faced to date; Coy pursued takedowns and Dominique Steele was content to constantly try to pin Roberts against the cage, but they were pure control artists and not nearly as dangerous as Silva will be once Roberts tries to free himself. Silva should be able to dictate the terms of the fight and win rounds, even if both men keep things active enough to always be entertaining. Roberts does have a path to victory -- Silva’s aggression does leave him open to be blasted -- but the likelier scenario sees the Brazilian winning decision.
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