UFC Fight Pass Prelims
Middleweights
Khalid Murtazaliev (13-2) vs. C.B. Dollaway (17-8)
Odds: Murtazaliev (-165), Dollaway (+145)
It'll be interesting to see what befalls C.B. Dollaway here, since his career is seemingly cursed. Dollaway was a top prospect early in his career, but soon showed a knack for imploding and handing his opponent a win at any opportunity. But a few years ago, Dollaway finally righted the ship and went on a bit of a run, but his first main-event spot ended in a 62-second loss to Lyoto Machida that started a three-fight losing streak. Dollaway's now coming off two straight wins, but there's still been a ton of weirdness; Dollaway has a chronic back injury thanks to an elevator he was in falling a few floors right before UFC 203, an incident that has apparently left him unable to put on enough mass for a planned move to light heavyweight. Plus Dollaway's last bout was a rare disqualification win, as Hector Lombard effectively knocked him out after the first round had ended. Dollaway takes on late-notice replacement Khalid Murtazaliev, who steps in on about a week's notice. Murtazaliev has the archetypical Russian fighting style, with a decent, low-output striking game, but at his strongest once he can start grappling. Dollaway can win this one if it stays as a slow range kickboxing bout, but as soon as these two start wrestling, Murtazaliev should have the size and strength to take over, and given Dollaway's increasing inability to take damage, the pick is Murtazaliev by third-round stoppage.
Bantamweights
Petr Yan (9-1) vs. Jin Soo Son (9-2)
Odds: Yan (-750), Son (+525)
Petr Yan coming to the UFC felt inevitable for a while, and once it happened, the Russian lived up to the hype, knocking out Teruto Ishihara in about three and a half minutes this past June. Yan figured to be someone to watch, as he's a flashy boxer with a penchant for brutal knockouts and enough athleticism to keep things standing, but it was still impressive to see him handle a durable athlete like Ishihara without much trouble. Yan figured to get a big spot here, but after a few different opponents fell through, he now faces South Korean newcomer Jin Soo Son, who should at least make things fun. Son falls right into the typical mold of his countrymen, favoring offense over defense, though his style is less predicated on constant action and more on picking his moments and coming forward in bursts. Still, Yan should be able to hit him and land the much harder blows of the fight to boot. This should be a barnburner for as long as it lasts, and given that Soon's never been knocked out, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he lasts for a bit; the pick is Yan via third-round stoppage.
Lightweights
Rustam Khabilov (22-3) vs. Kajan Johnson (23-12-1)
Odds: Khabilov (-700), Johnson (+500)
Russian sambo artist Rustam Khabilov looked like one of the UFC's most exciting newcomers circa 2013, thanks to his run of finishing opponents with high-amplitude throws and suplexes. But as the years have gone on, he's settled into a low output wrestle-boxing game that, while much less exciting, is no less effective, as Khabilov is currently riding a five-fight winning streak. From a momentum standpoint, that makes it a bit odd that he's facing Kajan Johnson, who's coming off a loss, though it does make a bit more sense once you consider that Johnson has been an outspoken pro-union advocate. At any rate, inside the cage, Canada's Johnson has had a surprising amount of success, mostly based around a frustrating range striking game that sees him circle from a distance until he picks his shot. Like Khabilov's current style, it's not pretty, but it's effective, though Islam Makhachev was able to catch Johnson and run through him with little trouble just a month and a half ago. Khabilov's still slow enough that Johnson may be able to win an ugly decision based solely on speed, but I expect Khabilov to get his grappling game going at some point and he should be much more powerful in that phase of the game. Since Khabilov isn't much of a finisher, the pick is Khabilov via decision.
Lightweights
Mairbek Taisumov (26-5) vs. Desmond Green (21-7)
Odds: Taisumov (-420), Green (+335)
Russian striker Mairbek Taisumov remains one of the more underrated fighters on the roster; since an early loss to Michel Prazeres, Taisumov has reeled off five straight wins without much trouble, but a combination of injuries and visa issues has left him unable to get a chance at a breakthrough win. Desmond Green isn't a particularly big name himself, but he's still likely Taisumov's best opponent since that Prazeres loss. It's surprising this fight is even happening, given Green's recent involvement in a fatal car crash in Florida, but inside the cage, Green's a solid enough fighter, as after a few years as a grinder, he's developed a solid striking game. Green has the wrestling to make this interesting and finally provide another test for that part of Taisumov's skills, but he also has a bad tendency to get scared off on the feet when his opponent starts to throw. Given Taisumov's impressive striking acumen and knockout power, I think he'll scare Green out of getting too aggressive with that wrestling game and while Green should stay defensive, it feels like only a matter of time before he gets caught. The pick is Taisumov via second-round knockout.
Light Heavyweights
Magomed Ankalaev (8-1) vs. Marcin Prachnio (13-3)
Odds: Ankalaev (-440), Prachnio (+350)
Light heavyweight can't have nice things. Russia's Magomed Ankalaev signed with the UFC as a top prospect, owing to some frighteningly powerful ground-and-pound, so naturally, he wound up as the victim of one of the biggest upsets of the year, dominating a fight with Paul Craig before getting tapped via triangle in the last ten seconds of the bout. On the plus side, Ankalaev can easily get back on track here against Poland's Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio's somewhat one-dimensional, but he's at least a fun addition to the UFC roster as a powerful and aggressive striker. He wasn't able to accomplish much in his own UFC debut, though, getting tagged repeatedly before getting knocked out by Sam Alvey this past February. Ankalaev's striking is passive and defensively open, so Prachnio has a chance before this fight gets to the ground, but Ankalaev should be able to implement his wrestling without much trouble and things should be one-sided from there. The pick is Ankalaev via second-round stoppage.
Middleweights
Adam Yandiev (9-0) vs. Jordan Johnson (9-0)
Odds: Johnson (-265), Yandiev (+225)
Once again, light heavyweight can't have nice things. Jordan Johnson has established himself as a top light heavyweight prospect through three UFC fights, owing to a strong collegiate wrestling background and a striking game that's surprisingly functional given his background and relative inexperience. Johnson figured to move up the ladder at 205 in his next fight, so, naturally, he's instead moving down to middleweight, stepping in as a late-notice opponent against Adam Yandiev. Yandiev was a bit of an odd signing by the UFC for this card, given that he hasn't fought in almost three years, but he does have nine first-round finishes in nine fights, so there you go. Yandiev's game is all winging hooks and power submissions, a style that I don't expect to have much success at this level and especially not against a larger, talented wrestler like Johnson. Unchecked aggression always has a chance, but as long as Johnson can survive early, this could get really ugly as Yandiev gasses out; the pick is for Johnson to win an increasingly one-sided fight by third-round submission.
Welterweights
Ramazan Emeev (17-3) vs. Stefan Sekulic (12-2)
Odds: Emeev (-485), Sekulic (+385)
Ramazan Emeev is yet another Russian grinder moving his way up the ranks. Though he has solid skills everywhere, Emeev looks to push his opponent into the clinch from there, working a low-output game that, while not always that entertaining, has proven effective in two UFC fights to date. He takes on late-notice newcomer Stefan Sekulic, who fights out of Serbia. Sekulic has a perfectly fine game for the regional scene, showing some well-rounded skills and an ability to take advantage of his opponent's mistakes, but I'm not sure what part of it translates to a UFC level, particularly against someone as talented as Emeev. Emeev should be able to grind out a decision win.
Bantamweights
Merab Dvalishvili (7-4) vs. Terrion Ware (17-8)
Odds: Dvalishvili (-470), Ware (+375)
Georgia's Merab Dvalishvili is coming off one of the odder losses in UFC history, getting choked unconscious at the final horn against Ricky Simon, leading to the finish of the fight being ruled as such after the fight was over. At any rate, up until that point, Dvalishvili's relentless pressure game looked extremely effective, so hopefully he can get his first UFC win in his third try against Terrion Ware. California's Ware has had a rough go of it, getting matched up with Cody Stamann, Sean O'Malley and Tom Duquesnoy in his three UFC bouts, but he possesses a slick boxing game that, while not leading him to a win against any of those top prospects, has given him the ability to hang close in competitive losses. Dvalishvili's over-aggression at the expense of defense should leave him open to get hit by Ware, but I have concerns overall about how Ware is going to handle Dvalishvili's maniacal pressure, particularly once the Georgian gets his wrestling going. The pick is Dvalishvili via decision.