Odds: Sterling (-110), Johns (-110)
The undefeated Johns has been on an absolute tear since entering the UFC in November 2016, rattling off three wins in increasingly one-sided fashion. “The Pikey” is the rare European fighter whose wrestling is not to be slept on. He used rinse-and-repeat takedowns -- 11 of them -- on Kwan Ho Kwak in his debut and steadily ground-and-pounded Albert Morales to a pulp. Most recently, he hit a 30-second Submission of the Year candidate -- only the second calf slicer in UFC history -- on BJJ black belt and leg-lock specialist Joe Soto. His setup was extremely slick and obviously well-drilled. When the opportunity to use it presented itself, he did not miss.
Johns pairs his wrestling and grappling talents with short but deceptively powerful striking. His right cross in particular darts out and finds his opponent’s chin before they can react. But the Chris Rees understudy’s defense still has a way to go. He slips punches well when that’s all he has to think about, but as with all young fighters, coalescing his defense and offense into a compatible whole is his next challenge. There have been multiple times when he has merely shelled up and backed away in a straight line, eating unnecessary shots in the process. But at only 26, he has plenty of time to shore up this area of need.
Earlier in his UFC tenure, Sterling was frustratingly unwilling to engage and reacted badly whenever he found himself under fire. He still primarily kicks from long range like he did then, but he has become much better at using those kicks, as well as the accompanying feints and tricky lateral movement, to enact meaningful offense. There is less wasted motion, like ducking his head way down to avoid a punch, so he is in better position and better balanced to counter. The Serra-Longo standout is more willing to mix it up in the pocket, which he usually does with whipping hooks. Sterling could still stand to tighten up (it was a short right hook from Marlon Moraes inside his own left that put him in trouble before the fight-ending knee), but his speed attenuates this weakness.
Obviously, the former D-III All-American makes his bones on the floor. While he is not a lights-out takedown artist, he is dogged in the pursuit. If his foe should escape his clutches, Sterling is apt to launch something unorthodox on the break, like a spinning backfist or head kick. When he does achieve top position, he is a fantastic scrambler and a creative and aggressive submission threat. His front headlock series is venomous and his back-take is nearly irresistible once he gets it started.
Leaving Johns’ sensational recent submission aside, top pressure and boxing do not seem like the right skill set to beat Sterling. “Funk Master” is not one to hang out in the pocket, absorbing an absurdly low 1.38 significant strikes per minute. It has been ferocious kickers who could match him in the grappling department that have beaten Sterling, primarily, and Johns does not quite fit that bill. The Welshman is only 26 and clearly adding to his bag of tricks every time out, but Sterling isn’t exactly old at 29. He, too, continues to show improvements. Look for Sterling to slow Johns’ meteoric ascent with a hard-fought, tightly contested decision backed by effective kicking offense and edging a key scramble or two.
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