Preview: UFC Fight Night 127 ‘Werdum vs. Volkov’
The Prelims
Middleweight
Charles Byrd (9-4) vs. John Phillips (21-6)
Advertisement
ANALYSIS: We have a pick-’em fight here, largely on account of both fighters lacking defense. Both men are potent fight finishers. In fact, Phillips, the charmingly nicknamed “White Mike Tyson,” has gone to a decision just once in 27 pro fights. Though now training at SBG Ireland with Conor McGregor and Co. -- he actually lives in a caravan in trainer John Kavanagh’s backyard – there is not much to say about his style: He is a massive southpaw puncher who backs up his opponents, throws one or two heavy shots and, more often than not, leaves them on their face. However, his takedown defense has been fairly rotten and easy to exploit. Byrd, meanwhile, is a classic Janjira Muay Thai disciple who attacks behind his jab and leg kicks, then explodes with combinations. He has crafty submissions, too, as he knows how to work the front headlock and explode into back control. In “Kid Dynamite’s” case, his defensive liabilities come in the form of poor takedown defense and the fact that he often gives up dominant positions by trying to hulk up to his feet. Fortunately for him, it is doubtful the Welshman is going to try to take him down. Also, Phillips has had one fight in over two years due to a constant string of injuries. Phillips’ left hand could result in a spectacular knockout, but if Byrd uses his own striking to segue into the grappling game, his aggressive nose for submissions should prevail. In the battle of Mike Tyson-themed nicknames, Byrd by submission inside the distance is the call.
Welterweight
Oliver Enkamp (7-1) vs. Danny Roberts (14-3)
ODDS: Roberts (-165), Enkamp (+160)
ANALYSIS: Weirdly, we have a pairing of men coming off losses to Tristar Gym’s Nordine Taleb. Enkamp started well against Taleb in their bout in May, only to be physically overwhelmed over the final 10 minutes, suffering the first loss of his pro career. Roberts, on the other hand, hardly got to start at all in his December bout with Taleb, as he got lazy early, walked himself back to the fence and got head kicked and punched out in 59 seconds. In the broad strokes, there are definite similarities in Roberts and Enkamp. Their most dynamic abilities are as submission grapplers, but both much prefer to mix it up on the feet. The best comparison for Enkamp is something akin to a poor man’s Gunnar Nelson, especially given his awkward karate stylings on the feet and wacky punching mechanics. Roberts is a southpaw slickster on the feet, using a bevy of low and high kicks to maintain range before trying to score with big counter lefts. Enkamp is more hittable, defending just 35 percent of the significant strikes thrown at him to Roberts’ 57, but when “Hot Chocolate” eats a shot, he eats it flush and clean. The Swede could surprise him with his jerky striking, but Roberts also figures to have a wrestling advantage to rely on if he is rocked. On top of that, Enkamp has never fought a southpaw. Roberts will likely have a few moments where he is careless, but he should be able to hammer out a unanimous decision win, with the possibility of a knockout or submission on a wounded Enkamp.
Welterweight
Jack Marshman (22-7) vs. Bradley Scott (11-5)
ODDS: Marshman (-320), Scott (+260)
ANALYSIS: This is Marshman’s welterweight debut, though he will give up an inch of height and three inches of reach to the robust, 6-foot-1 Scott, who likes to get to the clinch, muscle opponents and attack with volleys of strikes. Unfortunately, Scott enters this fight on just 19 days’ notice, subbing an injured Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Marshman is an out-fighting boxer with an excellent, diverse lead hand and heavy combinations. The problem: Despite being a skilled pugilist on offense, his defense is simply not good, as he moves in almost entirely straight lines, does not have much head movement and absorbs 4.42 significant strikes per minute. Scott is also a negative-ratio striker, landing 3.45 significant strikes per 60 seconds while eating 4.28. Suffice to say, this fight is probably going to end with someone eating the mat. The question is whether Scott can get past Marshman’s jab and combinations, grind on him and tire him out. If so, given Marshman’s history of fading over the course of fights and the fact that it is his welterweight debut, it could be the Brit’s night. However, even though Scott has alternated wins and losses for the last six years of his career, the more natural scenario seems to be Marshman piecing up the “Bear” with his hands. The Welshman outboxes Scott and knocks him out in the middle stages of the fight.
Featherweight
Hakeem Dawodu (7-0-1) vs. Danny Henry (11-2)
ODDS: Dawodu (-360), Henry (+300)
ANALYSIS: After growing to a tight majority draw with Marat Magomedov in the World Series of Fighting back in December 2015, Dawodu affirmed his righteous hype by destroying Magomedov in the rematch with a vicious body shot, then hammering the ever-scrappy Steven Siler for 15 lopsided minutes. He is a quick, powerful sprawl-and-brawler who throws with all eight points of striking, preferring flashy, spinning kicks from distance, but he is also adept at grabbing the clinch and dishing out a varied attack to both the head and body. Henry is a fun style matchup for the Calgarian, as he is an active, rangy striker who, like Dawodu, attacks both the head and body and also has a penchant for awesome clinch striking. In his UFC debut against Daniel Teymur, he landed 6.20 significant strikes per minute, which is reflective of his usual oeuvre. However, the Scot also absorbed 4.60 significant strikes per minute, and that “hittability” is also characteristic of his style. Dawodu has not spent a ton of time on the ground, and while Henry is a crafty grappler, “The Hatchet” is not much chop as a wrestler. His long, lanky 6-foot frame may help him preserve distance on Dawodu and utilize his kicking game, but his lack of defense figures to destroy whatever advantages his reach may create. Henry has never been stopped, but if this goes down from a distance, it figures that Dawodu is going to land a sudden, explosive strike and put him away. Give me Dawodu by knockout inside the distance.
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (10-0) vs. Paul Craig (9-2)
ODDS: Ankalaev (-620), Craig (+460)
ANALYSIS: Scotland’s Craig is in a pitiable position. The biggest underdog on the card, “Bearjew” quit his job as a high school teacher to focus on fighting full-time last year, only to eat the first two losses of his career while getting thumped in the first-round by Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree. Now, he is on the last fight of his UFC deal and faces a rough style matchup against the unbeaten Ankalaev, who despite not being an incredible athlete has well-rounded punching and kicking offense, a ragdolling wrestling game and heavy ground-and-pound. Craig has some clinch skills, but the lanky and likely less powerful guy may be outgunned in that department. Moreover, his recently embattled chin is going to be under constant threat from the rangier, combination striking from Ankalaev, who has some unorthodox kicking, to boot. The one thing that helps Craig here is that he is an unbelievably lithe, slick grappler from both top and bottom, and if Ankalaev gets lazy with his constant waist-wrestling and slams, the Russian could wind up swept or submitted in an ensuing scramble. Still, Craig is the card’s biggest underdog for a reason and he has gotten absolutely clobbered in his last two outings, which does not bode well here. Ankalaev stays unbeaten, knocking out Craig in the first half of the contest.
Lightweight
Kajan Johnson (22-11-1) vs. Stevie Ray (21-7)
ODDS: Ray (-175), Johnson (+135)
ANALYSIS: Johnson’s three-fight UFC winning streak has been curious, most recently punctuated by a devastating knockout upset of Adriano Martins at UFC 215 in September, a crushing, right-hook counter doing the damage. While he is only 33 years old, “Ragin’ Kajan,” has had nearly three dozen fights in a 16-year MMA career and has taken a ton of punishment, sustaining injuries both in and out of the cage. While he tends to be a jack of all trades, he is dynamic, with a varied submission game and the aforementioned pop in his hands. The biggest problem is that he tends to be inactive and patient to a fault in the cage, landing only 2.50 significant strikes per minute while completing just two takedowns per 15 minutes. Enter Scotland’s Ray, an active and accurate southpaw boxer with strong clinch skills, though he did get creamed in close quarters by Paul Felder. Ray has significantly improved the overall tightness of his MMA game over his near eight-year career seemingly by learning on the job and improving fight to fight. If Johnson can find consistent takedowns, this can be a winnable fight on points or perhaps submission, but it seems much more likely that Ray backs him up and chases him down with smart boxing combinations and some nice clinch work, possibly even knocking him out inside the distance. While Johnson’s public efforts to spearhead a fighters union are worthy of note and admiration, Ray by decision is the call.
Heavyweight
Mark Godbeer (13-3) vs. Dmitriy Sosnovskiy (10-0)
ODDS: Sosnovskiy (-280), Godbeer (+200)
ANALYSIS: Ukraine’s Sosnovskiy has been on the UFC roster for some time now but has not fought in three years, owing to a serious of injuries and fight cancelations. This is troubling, not to mention that, while powerful, he has shown some mediocre standup. However, given “Wicked Machine’s” strong wrestling, powerful ground-and-pound and surprisingly slick submissions, he is getting a preferential style matchup against England’s Godbeer, who has difficulty defending takedowns despite being an effective and powerful right hand-dominant puncher and complicates things for himself by seldom maintaining distance and throwing a decent volume of leg kicks. Unless Sosnovskiy has improved his striking considerably in his three-year absence, Godbeer will have chances to crack him, but ultimately, he is going to end up on the floor, where Sosnovskiy will tune him up. Give me Sosnovskiy by submission or ground-and-pound stoppage inside of 10 minutes.
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (8-2) vs. Nad Narimani (10-2)
ODDS: Haqparast (-120), Narimani (-120)
ANALYSIS: The card opens with a tasty and potentially fun fight between prospects. Haqparast was unsuccessful in his promotional debut against Polish grappling ace Marcin Held in October but took the fight on short notice for an injured Teemu Packalen and even landed some good shots on the tricky leglock specialist. Speaking of late notice, Narimani enters this contest with less than a week to prepare, stepping up for an injured Alex Reyes. Hagparast is a left-handed thumper, with massive overhands and hooks, as well as the ability to deliver heavy ground-and-pound when he is on top. Still just 22 years old, the question for the Germany-based fighter will be how much he has improved his overall game working with Kings MMA stateside. Narimani, the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship featherweight titleholder, will be the smaller man but has shown more well-rounded skills in his MMA career. He is an aggressive sprawl-and-brawler who can vary his lead hand and set up takedowns behind his punch rushes. Both of his career losses -- one to Graham Turner and the other to Alex Enlund -- came to more experienced fighters in razor-thin decisions. Narimani can fall into lulls, back himself up and take damage, but in a pick-’em fight and even with Haqparast’s scary southpaw power, the Brit’s more well-rounded skills should allow him to take a decision.
Related Articles
