Preview: UFC 309 ‘Jones vs. Miocic’

Lightweights

Mauricio Ruffy (10-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. James Llontop (14-4, 0-2 UFC)

ODDS: Ruffy (-800), Llontop (+550)

UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
The UFC certainly seems to be high on Ruffy, which is understandable given his last performance—a thrashing of Jamie Mullarkey in May that ended in a first-round knockout. It was an impressive showing for the Brazilian, adding a new wrinkle to a resume that could be inconsistent at times. A lot of Ruffy’s regional film showed him hunting for the flashy knockout, and his win on the Contender Series was a mixed bag. He showed some newfound patience but still looked inefficient and far from dominant against the toughest test of his career to date. The win over Mullarkey was the best balance Ruffy has shown thus far, so the hope is that he can carry that over into another standout performance against Llontop, Ruffy’s latest opponent after many other options fell through.

Another 2023 graduate of the Contender Series, Llontop looked set to join the ranks of Peruvian fighters who have overachieved inside the UFC through toughness and durability. “Goku” has shown both in two UFC bouts—particularly his last fight against Viacheslav Borshchev in August—but hasn’t really been able to get the ball rolling either time, getting out-wrestled and outgrappled by Chris Padilla before dropping a slugfest to Borshchev. This pairing is even more of an uphill battle, with the caveat that Llontop’s durability and doggedness might allow him to make some hay in the spaces that Ruffy offers in between landing big moments of offense. However, given that Ruffy should be able to offset that with those big moments of offense, the Brazilian is the clear choice, even if it might not wind up in the blowout that some expect. The pick is Ruffy via decision.

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Jones vs. Miocic
Oliveira vs. Chandler
Nickal vs. Craig
Silva vs. Araujo
Ruffy vs. Llontop
Prelims: McGhee vs. Martinez