Preview: UFC 307 Prelims

Tom FeelyOct 02, 2024

Women’s Strawweights

Tecia Pennington (13-7, 9-7 UFC) vs. Carla Esparza (19-7, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Pennington (-180), Esparza (+150)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

This marks the retirement fight for Esparza, ending what’s destined to become one of the most underrated careers in UFC history. The UFC first established its strawweight division with a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2014 to crown a champion, and Esparza cashed in on her status as both the favorite and the top seed, using her wrestling game to control the competition before beating Rose Namajunas for the vacant belt. However, “The Cookie Monster” quickly became an afterthought. Esparza’s first title defense saw her get torn apart by Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who’d go on to establish herself as the queen of the division. As for Esparza, she stayed relevant but seemed destined to become a footnote in the grand scheme of things. She threaded the needle the best she could as a one-dimensional wrestler who was quite undersized for the division, but she kept running into better athletes that would seemingly keep her permanently away from a return to title contention. Just when it seemed safe to write Esparza off as a title contender, she quietly reeled off five straight wins and suddenly found herself as the top contender for Namajunas, who had become strawweight champion by 2022. The resulting rematch was compelling in its own way, even if it’s one of the worst title fights in the history of mixed martial arts. Namajunas had developed all the tools to dominate the rematch but was seemingly so focused on freezing out Esparza’s wrestling that she didn’t throw out any offense herself. It led to five rounds of inactivity on both sides and Esparza walking away with the decision win and the belt. No matter the circumstances, Esparza finding her way to a second strawweight title reign was a massive accomplishment, even if things ended in much the same way as the first. Weili Zhang rolled over Esparza in her first title defense, and she has been out of action for nearly two years since due to pregnancy. Her return comes in a fight that somehow technically hasn’t happened yet. She faced Pennington on “The Ultimate Fighter,” but they have never had an official fight despite being relevant for the entirety of the UFC’s strawweight divisional history. While Esparza was the clear top dog at strawweight when the UFC launched the division, the Pennington was one its brightest prospects, having quickly established herself at a high level. “The Tiny Tornado” didn’t have much in the way of knockout power but lived up to her nickname as someone able to drown her opponents in striking volume with her considerable speed. Impressively—for better or for worse—Pennington has remained almost exactly the same fighter for the next decade. Her squat frame has given her some trouble against someone of the better athletes in the division that also have some size, but Pennington has never been an easy out and is still capable of beating a vast swath of the division. That nearly included Tabatha Ricci, who barely walked away with a decision win over her in May in Pennington’s own return from pregnancy, and it might include Esparza. Pennington is an absolute tank who won’t be easy to take down, and it’s hard to tell exactly how the former champion will look between coming back from pregnancy after two years and with retirement in the imminent future. Pennington might actually be the smarter pick, especially with the elevation of Salt Lake City also potentially affecting Esparza’s spotty gas tank, but the benefit of the doubt goes to the former champ and the potential that she can outwrestle the rare opponent who’s her own size. The pick is Esparza via decision.

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