Middleweights
Kevin Holland (26-11, 13-8 UFC) vs. Roman Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC)UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
A former light heavyweight and former welterweight meet at 185 pounds for what could be a strange fight. Holland spent the first few years of his UFC career as an entertaining if inconsistent middleweight until a breakout 2020 campaign, as he was a perfect match for the pandemic era of the UFC. Holland’s willingness to take short-notice fights meant he was frequently in front of viewers, and his tendency to trash talk during his fights was quite welcome in the otherwise-quiet UFC Apex. As a result, Holland entered 2021 with the hopes of breaking through as a contender, but instead, things went completely sideways in what turned out to be a winless year. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori each exposed Holland’s lack of takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet, and his final bout of the year ended in a no contest due to an accidental clash of heads. Holland then announced he’d be cutting down to welterweight, and his eight-fight run in the division wound up as a mixed bag. For one, it was impressive that Holland even made the weight, as he immediately became one of the tallest fighters in the weight class; and he was able to put that size to good use. Even so, that was a double-edged sword. A lot of Holland’s middleweight fights were marked by some surprising technical craft as a striker, which seemingly went out the window at welterweight, with “Trailblazer” content to lean on his physical advantages to take a wilder, more aggressive approach. That led to a lot of messy affairs that mostly left Holland in the same spot he was as a middleweight, so after taking a late-notice fight up at 185 pounds in June, it’s not a shock to see him stick around in the weight class for this fight against Dolidze.
Dolidze’s had a successful UFC career over the last four years and change, though it’s still a bit hard to parse exactly how the Georgian keeps finding his way into the win column. Initially a light heavyweight prospect, Dolidze was inefficient but dangerous on the regional scene and early in his UFC career. Dolidze didn’t have much of a consistent round-winning approach, but he’d throw out enough low-percentage techniques that eventually something would land thanks to his athleticism and physicality. Then Dolidze cut down to middleweight while temporarily reinventing himself as a low-output grinder whose fights were often unwatchable before rising through the ranks by rediscovering his finishing ability. Once again, Dolidze seemed to pull finishes out of nowhere, but it was clear that his combination of power and creativity was difficult for opponents to reckon with. Things have cooled off once again in Dolidze’s last handful of fights. Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov exposed a lot of the emptiness in Dolidze’s game in between techniques, and while he got the win in a late-notice light heavyweight fight against Anthony Smith in June, it still didn’t feel like a particularly inspiring or impactful performance. Both men have a path to victory here, though it’s hard to know who to trust to take it. Holland should have the higher striking output and the length to take Dolidze apart from range, but it seems likely that he’ll keep crashing into the Georgian and giving him opportunities to turn this into a low-output wrestling match. Dolidze might still be inactive enough that he could lose a decision in a fight that he mostly controls, but the call is that he’s stout enough to cause enough round-winning damage even in a grind. The pick is Dolidze via decision.
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Pereira vs. Rountree
Pennington vs. Pena
Bautista vs. Aldo
Harrison vs. Vieira
Holland vs. Dolidze
The Prelims