Preview: UFC 300 Prelims

Lightweights

#10 LW | Jalin Turner (14-7, 7-4 UFC) vs. #13 LW | Renato Carneiro (18-5-1, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Turner (-238), Carneiro (+195)

The Carneiro renaissance has been an unexpectedly fun development of the last few years. The Brazilian made his UFC debut as a featherweight prospect back in 2014, but injuries delayed his breakout by a few years, with Carneiro eventually making his name in 2017 with a win over Jeremy Stephens. Best as a grappler up to that point, Carneiro showed off an effective striking game from range to neutralize Stephens and walk away with a clear decision win. The ability to either pick off opponents on the feet or find a submission on the mat led Carneiro to a ton of success, but when he hit his ceiling, he hit that ceiling hard. His 2019 bouts against Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung saw him get absolutely blasted for some brutal knockouts. Given his strengths and weaknesses as a featherweight, a subsequent move up to lightweight seemed like an odd move. It’s understandable that Carneiro wouldn’t want to drain himself, but as a rangy featherweight that struggled with power punchers, facing larger and harder-hitting opponents didn’t figure to go particularly well. A knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev in Carneiro’s second fight at lightweight showed those issues still persist, but Carneiro’s otherwise done well to stay relevant at 155 pounds, with a 2022 win over Brad Riddell serving as a particular highlight. Beyond a quick win on a big card in Madison Square Garden, Carneiro stole the show with a charismatic and profane post-fight interview that’s served as a launching pad for his personality. Even after injuries made 2023 a lost year for Carneiro, he stayed in the ether as a prominent personality, and after wrestling his way to victory against Drew Dober in February, he finds himself on another big card here against Turner.

Turner was a particularly raw talent when the UFC picked him up in 2018 but certainly worth the flier. At 6-foot-3, “The Tarantula” cuts an impressive frame that has been an issue for most opponents. Turner figured to have some growing pains in making the move up to better competition, and that indeed held true, though Turner was probably a quicker study than most would’ve expected. He got knocked out by Vicente Luque and handily outwrestled by Matt Frevola, but then reeled off a five-fight winning streak that included Turner showing off some unexpectedly sharp submission chops. However, 2023 was a mixed bag for Turner, who had three strong performances to prove he’s deserving of his UFC rankings but only walked away with one victory. Mateusz Gamrot’s wrestling-heavy approach neutralized Turner enough to eke out a decision win, and Turner narrowly dropped a back-and-forth war against Dan Hooker, but his length allowed him to quickly blow through Bobby Green’s defenses to end the year with a knockout win. This does read a bit similarly to the Green fight. While Green is typically dependent on defensive slickness, Carneiro’s more insulated by his range on the feet, and Turner’s outlier ranginess figures to work similarly in terms of taking away his opponent’s safety valve. If Carneiro finds an early takedown or otherwise survives the early going, this could be an absolute dogfight, but there’s a solid chance that Turner can cause some issues for Carneiro almost immediately and quickly close the show. The pick is Turner via first-round knockout.

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