Anthony Hernandez (11-2, 1 N/C) vs. Roman Kopylov (12-2)
Odds: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)
This should be a fun one between two under-the-radar middleweights. Anthony Hernandez's UFC career got off to a middling start, but "Fluffy" has been riding a wave of success since a 2021 win over Rodolfo Vieira that served as a breakthrough. Hernandez's game is built around constant pressure and aggression - he was even able to outlast Brendan Allen for a regional victory that continues to age well - but it seemed early on that Hernandez's style would lead him into trouble at the UFC level; Markus Perez was able to grab a submission, while Kevin Holland quickly stopped him in just 39 seconds. His matchup against Vieira, one of the most decorated grapplers on the UFC roster, figured to set him up for similar trouble, but instead Hernandez scored one of the most memorable upsets in recent years; Vieira was unable to find an early submission, and Hernandez's dedication to constant scrambling wore the Brazilian out badly, allowing Hernandez to score an unthinkable second-round submission of his own. Hernandez has held serve in his three fights since, outworking Josh Fremd, Marc-Andre Barriault and Edmen Shahbazyan, though injuries - both to Hernandez and his prospective opponents - have gotten in the way whenever the Californian has had the chance to make a move up the rankings. But those wins have been a nice proof of concept for Hernandez, who once again looks to defend his ranking here against Roman Kopylov. Kopylov was a complete afterthought for the first three years of his UFC career; injuries and visa issues limited the Russian to just two fights during that time, and he didn't show much during those rare trips to the Octagon. At the regional level, Kopylov was able to leverage his hand speed to outwork and outlast opponents, but those early UFC returns suggested he had neither the athleticism or the offensive diversity to hang on the roster for long. But things finally clicked for Kopylov in his 2022 fight against Alessio Di Chirico, and since then it's been off to the races; Kopylov has now reeled off four straight victories via knockout and provided some electric moments while doing so. Kopylov has learned to sacrifice some of his pace and volume in order to land with additional power; add in that he's still a crafty striker with a willingness to work the body, and he's been able to blow his fights open in a way that he was unable to previously. If there's once criticism of Kopylov's current win streak, it's that his recent opponents haven't been all that willing to press the issue and force Kopylov to fight under pressure, which is something that Hernandez will certainly test here. There's certainly a chance that Kopylov can find a knockout blow once again, particularly since Hernandez's style is more based around activity than control and should allow this fight to repeatedly get back to the feet, but the lean is that Hernandez can avoid trouble early and keep the momentum going, outlasting an opponent once again. The pick is Hernandez via third-round stoppage.
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Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Whittaker vs. Costa
Neal vs. Garry
Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo
Hernandez vs. Kopylov
The Prelims