Light Heavyweights
#12 LHW | Johnny Walker (19-7, 5-4 UFC) vs. #9 LHW | Paul Craig (16-5-1, 8-5-1 UFC)Walker is back in the win column, but there is still a lot for the Brazilian to work out. He was an absolute sensation upon his UFC debut, getting to the fringes of contender status in a hurry. In less than four months’ time, Walker had knocked out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov in less than three minutes combined. Add in Walker’s unorthodox charisma, and he looked like a potential future star, though things instantly went sideways after the Cirkunov knockout, starting with Walker severely injuring his shoulder in his post-fight celebration. Upon his return, Walker was quickly knocked out by Corey Anderson and outwrestled handily by Nikita Krylov, dulling his momentum until a chaotic victory over Ryan Spann, after which he suffered another long injury layoff. Walker then used the time to retool, but things have not exactly worked out. There is a logic regarding Walker using his gigantic frame to dictate range, but it has been a lot better in theory than in practice. His return fight against Thiago Santos was an extended staring match that saw him overcompensate for his previous losses by feinting too much while never actually pulling the trigger. Walker was a bit more active, though not particularly comfortable or effective, before getting knocked out by Jamahal Hill; and while Walker did rebound with a September win over Ion Cutelaba, the Moldovan took the initiative to take him down before getting outgrappled and submitted. There is not much evidence to suggest this current form of Walker is willing and able to put his type of fight on his opponent, which makes things bizarrely fascinating against Craig.
Scotland’s Craig came to the UFC as a curiosity in 2016, with a style built around grappling and little else. That aggressive submission game got him a debut win over Henrique da Silva, but subsequent knockout losses to Tyson Pedro and the aforementioned Rountree suggested that he had quickly found his ceiling. Then Craig scored a massive upset over Magomed Ankalaev via triangle choke—with just one second left in the fight—and with his spot on the roster saved, he traded wins and losses before suddenly rattling off a recent six-fight unbeaten streak. Craig just kept finding his way to finish after finish on the ground against either underprepared or overconfident opponents, but the hot streak came to an end in July, when Volkan Oezdemir survived and outpointed the Scotsman in an ugly fight. Craig had teased retirement in the past, but he has signed a new deal with the UFC and should be a problem in a division devoid of grappling for a while longer, including potentially here. Craig is almost surely going to get the opportunity to lead the dance. That could just get him quickly knocked out as he closes the distance, but with Walker increasingly gun-shy, the Scotsman should be able to take this to the mat. The win over Cutelaba did show that Walker is not entirely a walkover in the grappling realm, but if this goes to the ground, it is hard not to see Craig getting a lock on one of his counterpart’s long limbs. The pick is Craig via first-round submission.
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Teixeira vs. Hill
Figueiredo vs. Moreno
Burns vs. Magny
Andrade vs. Murphy
Walker vs. Craig
The Prelims