Preview: UFC 279 ‘Chimaev vs. Diaz’

Light Heavyweights

Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1, 5-6-1 UFC) vs. #13 LHW | Johnny Walker (18-7, 4-4 UFC)

ODDS: Cutelaba (-200), Walker (+170)

Walker was a revelation upon making his UFC debut in 2018, owing to his exciting fight style and unorthodox charisma. Within four months of his debut, he had knocked out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov in less than three combined minutes, with his only adversity coming when he injured himself in a post-fight celebration. After his return, Walker had trouble recapturing that lightning in a bottle. Corey Anderson quickly dispatched the Brazilian, and Nikita Krylov outwrestled him for 15 minutes right before the UFC’s brief 2020 shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Walker’s return win, a chaotic first-round finish of Ryan Spann, was a throwback to the flawed excitement that he can provide, but since returning from another injury layoff late in 2021, things have gone downhill fast. Walker and Thiago Santos combined for one of the worst fights of 2021—a five-round affair that saw neither man do much of anything; Walker, in particular, constantly feinted while throwing little in the way of actual offense. Things went slightly better against Jamahal Hill in February, but that fight only lasted three minutes, as the American beat Walker to the punch and scored a brutal knockout. Walker did need to change things up, but this appears to have been a drastic overcorrection that has nullified most of the reasons for his previous success, so he needs to find a balance and quick, particularly since Cutelaba figures to press the issue.

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Cutelaba has had roughly the opposite progression throughout his UFC career, often becoming the victim of his own aggression. Moldova’s “Hulk” came to the UFC in 2016 as a raw but promising 22-year-old, but after he found some success with first-round knockouts, things started to go off the rails a bit. Cutelaba eventually hunted the finish more and more as his career went on, leaving him to both abandon defense early and implode late if he could not quickly dispose of his opponents. That led to some losses that were both frustrating and comedic at times, but a win over Devin Clark in 2021 was reason for some optimism that Cutelaba had finally recalibrated; he put together a solid three-round performance on the back on his oft-underrated wrestling. Unfortunately, Cutelaba then quickly fell victim to a guillotine choke from Spann in their fight in May, proving that he may not have resolved all of his defensive issues. There is a decent chance that Cutelaba is just the right opponent to get Walker back to track by immediately walking into whatever flashy offense the Brazilian can muster up the will to throw. However, there is no reason to have faith in Walker at the moment, particularly with his poor defensive wrestling and Cutelaba’s increasing willingness to pursue that avenue to a win. The pick is Cutelaba via decision.

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Chimaev vs. Diaz
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