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Middleweights
NR | Rodolfo Vieira (8-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. NR | Wellington Turman (17-5, 2-3 UFC)ODDS: Vieira (-225), Turman (+185)
What are we to make of Vieira? A multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion who immediately became one of the best submission artists on the UFC roster when he signed in 2019, “The Black Belt Hunter” figured to have a quick path towards middleweight relevance. He seemed to have the requisite level of striking and wrestling to set up that grappling ability. Through two fights, all went well. Bouts against Oskar Piechota and Saparbek Safarov were messy at times, but Vieira managed to find submissions in relatively short order. Then came his encounter with Anthony Hernandez in February. Hernandez figured to be quick work for the Brazilian, but once Vieira was unable to find that early submission, he became just about as exhausted as any fighter in UFC history. Vieira has been open in the past about how nervous he is as a fighter, and that combination of tension and a complete energy dump led to his turning into a punching bag for the former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion—enough so that Hernandez was able to find his own submission in one of the biggest upsets of the year. Vieira seems to have adjusted well from the loss, as his win over Dustin Stoltzfus in July saw him pick his spots, manage his gas tank well and deliver a finish in the third round. Even with those improvements, it will be years until the memory of that Hernandez loss is washed away, but perhaps Vieira can build on his most recent performance in this assignment against Turman.
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Despite his struggles in the UFC thus far, Turman is still a prospect to watch thanks to his natural talent and his age. Somehow, he is still just 25 years old. Like Vieira, “The Prodigy” has struggled with his confidence inside the cage. Turman is at his best as a smothering wrestler and shows some impressive boxing at times, but he becomes uncomfortable as soon as his opponent provides some consistent resistance. Sam Alvey was enough of a blank slate that Turman managed to snap his recent losing streak with a clear win—even after multiple point deductions due to repeated eye pokes in the closing minutes of the bout—but Vieira figures to be a much tougher task. Turman has enough craft to his striking that he could crack the submission savant and break him early, but the best part of his game lines up with exactly where Vieira is at his most comfortable. Add in that Vieira is the much more powerful athlete and potent finisher, and he deserves to be the clear favorite. The pick is Vieira via second-round submission.
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