Light Heavyweights
Paul Craig (13-4-1) vs. Mauricio Rua (27-11-1)It remains unclear why the UFC decided to run back a draw from 2019 that was not particularly entertaining in the first place, but at least that means this is an evenly matched fight. At some point, the late-career stages of “Shogun” Rua went from depressing to somewhat inspirational, as the Brazilian legend has been shockingly successful in the last few years. Injuries and hard training meant that Rua was seemingly on borrowed time as far back as his UFC debut in 2007, but he at least held on long enough to capture the UFC’s light heavyweight title from Lyoto Machida before falling off an athletic cliff. The next few years after a loss to Jon Jones were rough, but Rua has found his groove since his 2014 defeat to Ovince St. Preux. “Shogun” has essentially faced the best competition that is not immediately anywhere near the title picture, and that has proven to be a level where he can hang. While there is none of the athletic explosiveness that made Rua such a force during his peak in Pride Fighting Championships, he has been a durable and crafty veteran who can outlast and outwrestle his opponents as needed. With that said, his bout a year ago against Craig was a bit worrisome due to the dynamic that played out on the feet. Craig has been an interesting fighter since he came to the UFC in 2016, but he has been more of a curveball for his opponents than thought of as any sort of contender. Craig is at his best as a dangerous submission artist, and even then, he usually has to take some damage before catching his more athletic opponents. Craig has obviously put some work into his striking game with mixed results, but it was still a shock to see him essentially hit Rua at will thanks solely to his relative speed and youth. However, Craig’s willingness to go to the ground proved to be a blessing for Rua, who managed to control large swaths of their fight on the mat. With Craig as the more active fighter and Rua controlling more of the action, the judges eventually turned in cards that resulted in a split draw. The dynamics do not seem to have changed much in the last year, with Craig expected to do well on the feet as the faster striker while still being much too willing to get taken down to try to make something happen from the bottom. The pick is for Rua to grind out a decision win in what should once again be an ugly fight.
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