Middleweights
Derek Brunson (19-7) vs. Ian Heinisch (13-1)ODDS: Heinisch (-155), Brunson (+135)
For someone who has seemingly settled in as a middleweight gatekeeper, Brunson sure has taken a strange route to get there. Coming up the ranks in Strikeforce as a blanketing wrestler, Brunson was a perfectly fine prospect once the promotion was absorbed by the UFC, with his 2014 win over Lorenz Larkin standing out as the best example of his developing a well-rounded game. Then things suddenly kicked into high gear, with Brunson rattling off four straight first-round knockouts to suddenly make himself a contender at 185 pounds. In retrospect, a slate of Ed Herman, Sam Alvey, Roan Carneiro and Uriah Hall were exactly the types of unathletic or patient fighters that would allow Brunson to overwhelm them, which led things to get tragicomic during his first main event turn. Brunson was matched with fellow ascendant talent Robert Whittaker and decided the best way to make his mark was to become the most aggressive fighter in the history of the sport, as he spent about four minutes charging after “Bobby Knuckles” with little regard for defense, until the future champ finally put his lights out. It was a baffling performance, and the situation has not gotten much better for Brunson from a mental standpoint. His next bout saw him become too tentative to do much of anything against Anderson Silva, and most of his ensuing bouts have been kill-or-be-killed affairs that have seen Brunson fail to find a balance between being overly aggressive or too patient for his own good. On the plus side, that sometimes results in entertainingly strange affairs like his last bout against Elias Theodorou, but in a macro sense, Brunson has once again wound up settling in as a gatekeeper to title contention, with Heinisch as the next prospect to try and step up.
Heinisch has an insane life story, going from a teenage drug dealer to full-on international trafficker before mostly honing his grappling skills while serving prison time in the Canary Islands. That is all apparently behind him, and for all the complexity of Heinisch’s life outside of the cage, his style inside it is relatively simple, relying on little but his wrestling game and a big right hand. In a division with as many flawed fighters as middleweight, that has been enough for “The Hurricane” to get things done. He found himself on the losing side of the equation early against Cezar Ferreira and Antonio Carlos Jr., but he remained doggedly aggressive enough to break both fighters and get things done. There is probably a ceiling to this, but Heinisch has already been more successful than he has had any right to be.
Heinisch called for a fight against Brunson after his last win, and the Colorado native is a smart man. Heinisch has enjoyed his success against fighters known for breaking mentally, and that certainly describes Brunson. If this is one of those fights where Brunson decides to be aggressive, there is a chance he just comes out and smokes Heinisch. However, if Heinisch continues to force wrestling exchanges and continues to compete, Brunson figures to eventually crack under the pressure. He will probably have to evolve from here on out, but for this fight, the pick is Heinisch via decision.
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