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Preview: UFC 238 ‘Cejudo vs. Moraes’

Tuivasa vs. Ivanov



Heavyweights

Tai Tuivasa (8-1) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (17-2)

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ODDS: Tuivasa (-170), Ivanov (+150)

Tuivasa is one of the sport’s brightest heavyweight prospects at just 26 years old and clearly a Top 15 fighter in the division, even though he is still figuring out what he is doing. Up until his last two bouts, Tuivasa has been able to make a wild style full of low-percentage techniques work. Despite his soft frame, he is an impressive enough athlete to score things like a flying knee knockout of Rashad Coulter. With a step up in competition, Tuivasa has had to adjust. His win over Andrei Arlovski could have gone either way, but Tuivasa still impressed, mostly by preserving his gas tank and showing the ability to actually fight for multiple rounds. Junior dos Santos was too much too soon, however. Tuivasa actually did quite well for most of the bout but continued to rely on his durability in an unsustainable way against dos Santos, who tagged him enough to lead to a second-round finish. Tuivasa has already proven enough that starting him back against the dregs of the division would not do any good, so Ivanov provides a nice test to see exactly how the Aussie has adjusted since his first loss.

Ivanov has had an up-and-down career, to say the least. After making a name for himself by defeating Fedor Emelianenko in the 2008 Sambo World Championships, the Bulgarian continued to prove himself as a prospect until he was stabbed in the heart in a nightclub attack in 2012. Amazingly, “Baga” picked up right where he left off, making it to a Bellator MMA tournament final before heading to World Series of Fighting and becoming a champion there. Ivanov is a perfect gatekeeper for the heavyweight division. He is obviously quite tough and has those grappling skills upon which to fall back, and while he is an accurate striker, he does not have the speed or athletic burst to bother the division’s elite. After dropping his UFC debut to dos Santos, Ivanov won a controversial decision over Ben Rothwell to keep himself relevant. Given that he is a relatively fresh face in a thin division, Ivanov may yet be able to find a path to a championship fight.

This is the right fight to make, as it pits Tuivasa’s athletic gifts against Ivanov’s workmanlike skills. This could easily be a repeat of the Rothwell fight for Ivanov. Rothwell did well to pressure Ivanov and constantly keep him on his toes, but the former WSOF champion managed to land hard and accurate shots whenever he actually decided to throw. Of course, Tuivasa figures to hit harder and generally fight the more round-winning style, so it is up to Ivanov to either score a finish or wear out Tuivasa. Either of those paths to victory seem possible, along with taking advantage of Tuivasa’s overeager wrestling style if this fight somehow winds up on the mat. With that said, the pick is for Tuivasa to leverage his power and volume advantages into a decision victory.

Next Fights » ESPN Prelims
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