Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (23-6) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (15-2)ODDS: Ferreira (-165), Trinaldo (+145)
Trinaldo’s success has been a pleasant surprise. While he was a fan favorite on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” Trinaldo figured to hang around on the roster but not do much else; he was already well into his 30s by the time he was on the show, and his game was fairly limited, mostly based around physically overwhelming his opponents and trying to score a power submission. However, with some UFC money in his pocket and the ability to train as a full-time fighter, “Massaranduba” developed a strong striking game and suddenly reeled off the wins, getting seven straight victories to make himself a fringe lightweight contender. In recent years, Trinaldo has finally hit a ceiling, as Kevin Lee’s wrestling and James Vick’s reach proved to be too much. Still, even at 40, Trinaldo shows no signs of slipping out of his usual fringe-Top 15 range at 155 pounds. The matchmaking is not doing him any favors this time, though, as he looks to hold serve against a tough opponent and a surging countryman in Ferreira.
Ferreira, who fights out of Texas rather than his native Brazil, was chugging along as a solid but underappreciated lightweight until a drug test suspension took him out of action for most of 2016 and all of 2017. Since returning, Ferreira has surprisingly made a sudden run up the 155-pound ladder. First came an upset win over top prospect Jared Gordon, as Ferreira picked apart his aggressive game and cracked what was thought to be an indestructible chin. After holding serve against Kyle Nelson, Ferreira showed off his full range of skills in a big win over Rustam Khabilov in February, as he managed to stifle Khabilov’s strong grappling base and win the fight on the feet, where his power and pace gave him rounds and eventually secured the decision. Lightweight is historically known as the UFC’s toughest division, so add Ferreira to the list of fighters who make 155 pounds a shark tank.
This should be a fun one, both in terms of style and in being an evenly paced match. If one man can take over in the wrestling department, that would be a clear key to victory, but it also seems unlikely. Trinaldo is the more physically powerful of the two, but Ferreira has continued to hold his own against strong grapplers without much of an issue. On the feet, both men are able to connect with power. Trinaldo should hit the harder shots of the fight and there is a chance he scores the finish, but over three rounds, Ferreira should set the faster pace. The pick is Ferreira via decision.
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