Light Heavyweights
Jimi Manuwa (17-4) vs. Thiago Santos (19-6)ODDS: Santos (-220), Manuwa (+180)
Santos relocating to light heavyweight became an increasingly obvious move as 2018 played out. Even beyond the Brazilian being a giant middleweight, Santos kicked off the year with a win over Anthony Smith, who subsequently moved up to 205 pounds and instantly became a top contender. Given that all Smith had really been doing was athletically overwhelming slower, older fighters, there was no reason to believe that “Marreta” could not do the same. He stepped in as a late replacement in a bout against Manuwa in September. Naturally, Santos could not get quite as easy a path up the ladder as Smith, as Manuwa was eventually replaced by athletic middleweight prospect Eryk Anders. Even so, Santos’ all-power-all-the-time approach still earned the win. Now Santos can start his run up the division in earnest, as the UFC rebooked the Manuwa fight here.
Manuwa has had an odd career. Given that he did not make his UFC debut until age 32, there has always been a sense of urgency about his championship window, particularly since a large part of the Brit’s appeal is his athleticism. With every loss, there has been a concern that the result has closed Manuwa’s championship window for good. Despite that, Manuwa’s career has proven resilient. Yes, he has suffered his share of setbacks, but he always seems to find himself back in the championship picture. As an example: A loss to Anthony Johnson gave way to wins over Ovince St. Preux and Corey Anderson, which at light heavyweight was enough to give Manuwa top contender status before the return of Jon Jones. However, in the last year-plus, Manuwa’s career has ebbed once again. He was a victim of Volkan Oezdemir’s unlikely rise through the division, but a March loss to Jan Blachowicz was particularly damning, given that it was a rematch of a fight Manuwa won handily in 2015. Admittedly, that change in result probably has more to do with Blachowicz’s improvements than Manuwa changing much as a fighter, but it does suggest the division might be passing him by, making a win against Santos crucial.
Like most of Santos’ fights, this should provide some dumb fun, as Manuwa figures to be a willing dance partner when it comes to a brawl. Santos has gotten slightly more patient over the course of his UFC career, but he still throws nothing but heat, so there is a chance that the Brazilian gasses himself and lets Manuwa take over. In general, this is going to be a strike-for-strike battle, and Santos is younger, faster and more powerful. Santos does have a tendency to implode when things turn against him, so Manuwa could easily hold serve and score a dominant win of his own. With that said the pick is Santos via first-round knockout.
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