Women’s Strawweights
Michelle Waterson (15-6) vs. Felice Herrig (14-7)Advertisement
Herrig has had a fascinating career. After trading in her looks to make a name for herself when women’s MMA was making its way into the mainstream, it felt like things had gone through the looking glass when she was matched up against Paige VanZant. Herrig criticized the UFC for pushing the newcomer based on her appearance. That 2015 bout resulted in a win for VanZant and looked like a telling loss for the rest of Herrig’s career. Despite having a kickboxing background, Herrig had done most of her best work as a grappler, so it was disheartening when VanZant was able to overpower Herrig and set a pace that she couldn’t match. That fight does look like a turning point in Herrig’s career, but not in the way anyone would’ve imagined. The loss made Herrig take over a year off to get her mind right, and once she did, she returned in the best form of her career. Herrig’s striking game finally clicked with her grappling, resulting in a late-career renaissance and a four-fight winning streak that put her on the fringes of being a contender. While an April loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz has halted Herrig’s momentum for now, being a gatekeeper to the elite is still a higher standing than anyone would’ve expected her to reach.
Herrig next takes on Waterson, who’s also had to fight -- literally -- to be taken seriously. Given that she was known as “The Karate Hottie,” it was easy to write Waterson off early in her career as more of an attraction than a legitimate fighter, but once Waterson made her way to Invicta Fighting Championships and tapped out atomweight champion Jessica Penne, everyone had to take notice that Waterson was one of the best lighter-weight women in the world. Once the UFC essentially absorbed Invicta’s strawweight division, there was some hope that Waterson could be the new face of her promotion, but that went off the rails quickly. Waterson lost a stunning upset in a late-notice title defense against Herica Tiburcio, and shortly thereafter it was announced she’d be moving up to 115 to compete in the UFC. Thus far, her UFC career has been a mixed bag. She has held up impressively well in the strawweight class, but against elite opponents like Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres, she has been too small to overcome their reach or strength. Herrig makes for an interesting opponent, though, as these two are jockeying for position as the best strawweight outside of the UFC’s upper tier.
I always worry about how Waterson’s game is going to hold up, even though she has done surprisingly well at strawweight. Despite her nickname, the strongest part of her game is her grappling and submission ability, which perennially seems like a tough ask for someone so small in their weight class. Still, Waterson manages. Even against someone as muscular as Torres, Waterson held her own much more than I expected, despite doing so in a losing effort. However, Herrig is probably a strong enough grappler to hold her own if the fight takes place there, though frankly, I expect this to be more of a medium-paced kickboxing match. That should be Herrig’s fight to lose. Waterson’s speed could give Herrig some fits, but I expect the Illinois native to fall back on her counter game and get the better of individual exchanges. I really like the fight, as it should clear up the strawweight ladder a bit. The pick is Herrig via decision.
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