Preview: UFC 224 ‘Nunes vs. Pennington’

Middleweights

Vitor Belfort (26-13) vs. Lyoto Machida (23-8)

Odds: Machida (-275), Belfort (+235)

Thankfully, this “seniors’ tour” bout is not being foisted upon us as a Fight Night headliner. Former light heavyweight champions with title shots at 185 and 205 pounds, there is no doubting the strength of their resumes. But Belfort is 41, Machida turns 40 at the end of the month, and both Brazilians are years removed from their competitive primes. Until their most recent fights, their names and pedigrees positioned them against top-ten opponents, with devastating results. Finally matched against solid if unspectacular opponents, both legends captured desperately needed victories, Belfort against Nate Marquardt and Machida versus Eryk Anders.

Belfort has been competing professionally for more than two decades. In that time, he has developed craft as his athleticism and speed have dwindled. He is still a blitzer who throws at a painfully low rate, waiting for moments to unload salvos of punches, kicks, and knees but doing little in between. As he waits, opponents are able to score on him, but his counterpunching is an effective deterrent as long as he isn’t fighting elite opponents. Kelvin Gastelum, Ronaldo Souza, and Gegard Mousasi -- more durable, pressuring, and offensively devastating -- were all nightmare matchups for Belfort at this stage of his career. Against Marquardt, though, a skilled opponent at a similar physical stage, Belfort was able to slip and counter with a short uppercut that rocked the Coloradan. The trademark “Phenom” blitz followed. He couldn’t finish Marquardt, but was able to escape with a decision on the back of a couple big moments per round.

Belfort’s other major problem against the upper echelon at 185 pounds is that he wilts badly under pressure. When the fight starts to slip out of his control, his confidence goes into a nosedive, and his performance along with it. For just one recent example, he inextricably pulled guard against “Jacaré” Souza after escaping to his feet and fighting off a second takedown. He was on the back foot from the start, and while he had held his own until that point, he found a way out by going to his back against one of the best MMA grapplers ever. His recent alliance with Firas Zahabi’s Tristar Gym could help keep him focused in some regard.

Regardless, Machida does not figure to significantly test Belfort in terms of pressure. “The Dragon” is still the elusive, counter-oriented karateka he has always been, but that style has not aged well. A step slower, less decisive to react to small openings, and with a deteriorating chin, Machida has likewise struggled against younger, faster opposition. He, too, narrowly triumphed on the scorecards in his last bout. His tricky lateral movement, feints, lancing crosses, and body kicks were enough to win rounds against Anders, who mostly tried marching him down and firing his own intermittent southpaw crosses. He found the mark and rocked Machida but couldn’t finish him. As with Belfort, pressuring Machida is the most consistently successful tack to take, if his opponent has the skill to pull it off. This is easier with a wrestling advantage, pinning Machida’s back to the cage or the mat, but few outside of Luke Rockhold, Chris Weidman, and Yoel Romero can do so. When he isn’t being chased around the octagon’s warning track, the long-time UFC staple pot-shots with digging front kicks, body kicks, two-punch combinations, and step-in knees.

Both men have solid wrestling, with Machida holding slight statistical advantages. They are both BJJ black belts, but their takedowns will largely cancel out, giving us a kickboxing battle. I have to lean toward Machida. While he doesn’t fight at a high pace, he offers more consistent offense than Belfort. And without having to fend off constant pressure, a strategy I don’t see Belfort employing without gassing in short order, Machida will have the time and space to work his game and avoid his opponent’s occasional blitzes. “The Dragon” takes a decision.

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