Women’s Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira (9-0) vs. Cat Zingano (9-2)ODDS: Vieira (-145), Zingano (+125)
ANALYSIS: In case you forgot, Zingano is the last woman to defeat current UFC women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, pounding her out in the third round. I will forgive you if you forgot that fact, though, since it happened three and a half years ago. Since then, Zingano has fought just twice, getting thrashed in 14 seconds by Ronda Rousey and dominated by Julianna Pena. She has dealt with knee injuries, as well as a truly scary head injury that in turn impacted her hormone levels. Zingano has always been one of the most athletic, physically imposing women at 135 pounds, but at 35 years old and given her recent medical history, there are major questions about where she is at physically and competitively.
Conversely, the 26-year-old Vieira is just entering her physical prime and has looked increasingly impressive over her three UFC bouts. In her last outing against Sara McMann at UFC 215 in September, she started slow and needed to deal with the Olympic silver medalist’s wrestling early on, but she stayed patient, exploded into a beautiful clinch throw in second round and then cut right through McMann’s guard and locked up an arm-triangle choke. Her standup game is basic, but she has strong fundamentals, throwing a clean jab and right cross while mixing in sharp, well-timed uppercuts. “Fenomeno” is at her best on top, however, where she is a heavy-pressuring guard passer and can dish out steady, thumping ground-and-pound while looking to open up submission opportunities.
The problem for Zingano here is not just the near-decade difference in age or her myriad of medical issues but simply that she remains awkward and reckless on the feet. Part of what got Zingano owned so badly and quickly in her title challenge against Rousey was that she ran straight at the Olympic bronze medalist and got launched. The Colorado native simply tries to rush her opponents with wild southpaw strikes to segue into the clinch, where she then aggressively dirty boxes in pursuit of a takedown. She is not a particularly active striker, landing just 2.18 significant strikes per minute. When she lands, she lands hard, but she has historically relied so much on her physicality that against a sharper boxer and disciplined clinch fighter like Vieira she could be in real trouble.
While the line on this fight is close, that seems to be a function of Vieira still being unknown by most of the MMA public. Zingano’s health problems are no joke and seem to undermine the rugged, physical style on which she has always relied; never mind that she is facing a fighter who should be able to counterpunch her when she rushes inside and one that can take her down if she is too aggressive from the clinch. “Alpha” may have her moments in the fight, but unless her time at Alliance MMA in San Diego has completely retooled her game, the more technical, controlled and infinitely healthier Vieira should make her pay for her blitzing style, taking a 15-minute decision.
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