Middleweight
Paulo Henrique Costa (10-0) vs. Johny Hendricks (18-7)ANALYSIS: Four years ago, Hendricks was a once-beaten welterweight hotshot who pushed Georges St. Pierre to his limit and into a long sabbatical, losing a controversial split decision at UFC 167 that will still be debated years from now. Yet, in 2017, GSP is returning from four years outside the cage to vie for a UFC title and MMA history, while “Bigg Rigg” is looking to keep his spot on the UFC roster in a truly inhospitable circumstance.
Including that loss to “Rush,” Hendricks is 3-6 in his last nine Octagon appearances. His thrilling two-fight series with Robbie Lawler in 2014 saw him win and lose the UFC 170-pound crown, but Hendricks forging his own historical path over 50 savage minutes with “Ruthless Robbie” may have extracted something serious from the athlete. In the last 25 months, including his canceled UFC 192 bout with current champ Tyron Woodley, Hendricks has blown weight four times. In his “proper” middleweight debut against Tim Boetsch in June, necessitated by his sudden inability to hit the 170-pound mark, he clocked in at 188 pounds. In the bout, he was labored and lethargic in even the most basic of exchanges before eventually eating a head kick and punches, succumbing to Boetsch’s strikes in less than six minutes.
In a broad, stylistic sense, “Borrachinha” is not some cruel, Draconian style matchup for Hendricks. The Brazilian is still young in his career and finds himself at a considerable technical wrestling disadvantage; and presumably, Hendricks can still produce power in his vaunted left hand. However, since his tenure on “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3,” Costa has seemed like a completely different fighter, making rapid gains in skill as well as overall fight style, while Hendricks looks to no have no tread left on his tires. More pressingly, strange though it may seem, all of the tools Boetsch used to great success against Hendricks four months ago play to Costa’s strengths.
Boetsch used hard-charging, power-punching pressure to move Hendricks backward, never letting him settle or set up his right hand. He supplemented his attack with repeated clean right kicks to the legs, body and eventually the head to set up the fight-ending sequence. Since “The Ultimate Fighter,” this is precisely how “Borrachinha” has fought, dusting Garreth McLellan and Oluwale Bamgbose, both of whom wanted to strike with the Brazilian until they actually felt his power and panicked under his forward pressure. Costa cannot match Hendricks in the wrestling department, but if a shopworn “Bigg Rigg” is pressed to the fence and hopes to find that vintage left hand on the counter, he will find the business end of the canvas first.
It is spiriting that Hendricks has connected with Jackson-Wink MMA and seems dedicated to making another serious run in the UFC. However, his style has been reliant on a requisite toughness to set up open exchanges and wrestling opportunities, and he no longer has the reaction time, hand speed or chin to make this work. Right crosses and kicks behind a clean jab set up a knockout for Costa, who moves to 11-0, while Hendricks, still just 34 years old, may be looking at a pink slip.
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