Lightweights
Beneil Dariush (14-3) vs. Evan Dunham (18-6)ANALYSIS: Ruefully reflective of our main event, the pay-per-view main card begins with a fantastic 155-pound contest of legitimate consequence about which few folks care. C’est la lightweight vie.
Dunham turns 36 in December and has battled some injuries of late; nonetheless, the Oregon native enters the cage on a four-fight winning streak. One thing he shares in common with Dariush is that the last man to beat him was Edson Barboza. In July 2014, Barboza kicked in Dunham’s guts, and in March, the Brazilian authored a leading candidate for the 2017 “Knockout of the Year” with a nasty flying knee into Dariush’s face. It is far from the only thing Dariush and Dunham have in common. They are both rangy 5-foot-10 southpaws who can use their right hand to throw a clean jab or a variety of legitimate power punches; they can maintain distance with leg kicks; and they both have Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.
Dariush has a two-inch reach advantage and has considerably more one-shot power, but the real difference in the duo is pressure and activity. Dunham lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute to Dariush’s 3.83 while landing at a 39-percent clip to his opponent’s 46. Dariush is a great wrestler, but he largely uses it defensively, trying for 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes to Dunham’s 1.91. This is not a bull-versus-matador matchup per se, but the Dunham is undoubtedly the go-forward fighter in this contest.
That is not necessarily a good thing, given how Dariush operates. Dunham has become better at bringing his hands back to guard and not engendering punch-for-punch exchanges; however, all of his attacks represent chances for Dariush to score. Dariush’s sharpest tools are also some of the weapons that have given Dunham the most historical trouble, including precise, powerful counterpunching, the roundhouse kicks to the body and the ability to transition into submissions with the opponent hurt. The strategy that allowed Barboza to dismantle Dunham is one that Dariush can aptly and ably follow. More than that, while it is unlikely Dariush will show the aggression Donald Cerrone did against Dunham, it is still feasible that the same fight-ending scenario could play out with the Kings MMA product hurting Dunham and forcing him to wrestle desperately before segueing into a submission.
Dunham historically has shown a great chin, but Dariush’s pinpoint counters and overall smooth, consummate striking give him the advantage standing; never mind the fact that Dunham must guard his chin and his body. If Dariush does not do the dirty deed within the distance, he should win a clear but entertaining unanimous decision.
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