Flyweights
Henry Cejudo (10-2) vs. Sergio Pettis (15-2)Cejudo probably should have won that fight with Benavidez or at least earned a draw, given the point he lost for low blows in the first round. The Olympic gold medalist wrestler raised a lot of eyebrows when he waded into the pocket against Benavidez, dropping the more experienced striker within the first minute and going blow-for-blow with him for the rest of the fight. After just eight weeks of training under muay Thai specialist Damien Trainor, Cejudo’s high-volume but relatively low-impact boxing was traded out for an aggressive, powerful and well-rounded kickboxing style. He threw thudding kicks, followed heavy combinations into the clinch and kept up a blistering pace till the final bell.
Defense was not a priority, however, and that is where Pettis could surprise Cejudo. Pettis lacks the stopping power and next-level dynamism of his older brother, but he makes up for it with cleaner technique and higher output. Mainly an out-fighter, Pettis likes to use lateral movement to set up long, straight punches, which he frequently follows with quick, accurate kicks. Though he likes to set a long distance, he prefers to come forward when he can. In this regard, Pettis’ grittiness is certainly underrated. His chin has been cracked a few times in the past, but he is not at all afraid of taking a shot. On numerous occasions, he has absorbed a heavy blow only to return with an even more devastating strike in the same exchange. Still, Cejudo’s newfound aggression and power will make life difficult for Pettis if he cannot control the distance.
Cejudo is obviously a very talented wrestler. Nonetheless, wrestling has not always been a focus for him in MMA, likely because he spent the first few years of his pro career dedicating himself to mastering the striking game, not unlike fellow standout wrestler Yoel Romero. Still, he would be wise to utilize his takedowns and clinch skills in this fight. Pettis is a crafty submission grappler, but he tends to rely on speed and surprise rather than pure technique, and it is always difficult to control position on the ground in the flyweight division. Cejudo has never been taken down in the UFC, and he has never come close to being submitted on the ground. Because Pettis is often willing to play guard rather than scrambling immediately to his feet, Cejudo’s wrestling will be of key importance for controlling the pace and momentum of this fight.
THE ODDS: Cejudo (-385), Pettis (+315)
THE PICK: Cejudo is a heavy favorite, but Pettis is not to be overlooked. He has quickly gained confidence and composure in wake of his upset loss to Ryan Benoit in 2015, winning three in a row since then. While Pettis has struggled to dominate his flyweight opposition, he has also consistently outstruck them, surprising rugged veterans with his speed and craft. If Cejudo attacks Pettis the way he did Benavidez, however, the onslaught may prove too much for him to handle. Pettis tends to enjoy the most success in the early rounds, and Cejudo made a powerful statement by hurting Benavidez early and continuing to pour on the pressure throughout the remainder of the bout. Expect Pettis to slow down bit by bit as Cejudo keeps him guessing with an aggressive game plan. That pressure will come in handy if this fight goes the distance, but the pick is Cejudo by second-round TKO.
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