Preview: UFC 186 ‘Johnson vs. Horiguchi’

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BANTAMWEIGHTS

Yves Jabouin (20-9, 5-3 UFC) vs. Thomas Almeida (17-0, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Blue-chip prospect Almeida gets a big step up in competition in his second UFC outing against the venerable Jabouin. Almeida rang off 16 consecutive finishes to begin his career before finally going to a decision with Tim Gorman in his UFC debut, while Jabouin has alternated wins over Mike Easton and Dustin Pague with losses to Eddie Wineland and Brad Pickett.

Almeida is in the process of becoming a special striker. His fundamentals -- footwork, weight transfer and hip rotation -- are perfect, and he throws everything with clean, technical efficiency. This gives Almeida surprising power and allows him to work at a blistering pace, because he does not throw himself off-balance or waste energy. He prefers to be in the pocket, where he throws quick combinations with his hands, pounding body and head in sequence, with a preference for the liver shot, left uppercut and straight right. He also likes counter elbows at close range and catches ducking opponents with stepping or jumping knees. His defense is porous and he is often there to be hit, especially early in the fight, but improves drastically once he gets his timing and range. He is solid in the clinch, with sharp knees, elbows, and punches and boasts excellent takedown defense and a strong ability to regain his feet if he is planted on the mat. Most of all, Almeida has tremendous killer instinct, and once he smells blood, the fight is as good as over.

Jabouin has grown from a pure striker into a well-rounded veteran. He circles and cuts clean angles behind a crisp jab and straight right, and he flicks a no-switch left kick to the body and head regularly to catch unaware opponents trying to slip off the centerline. Power is not Jabouin’s strongest suit, but he works at a quick pace and can certainly hurt his opponents, especially with his kicks. He is an excellent clinch fighter, with a strong repertoire of knees, elbows and a slick trip game, and he shoots a beautiful reactive takedown in the pocket. He is an average grappler, but that is enough to maintain control from the top and usually to escape back to his feet from the bottom.

BETTING ODDS: Almeida (-425), Jabouin (+320)

THE PICK: Depending on Almeida’s improvements and the negative effects of Jabouin’s advancing age and long career, this could be over quickly or turn into a competitive affair. Either way, it favors the Brazilian. He is younger, faster, hits harder, works at a quicker pace and is a good-enough defensive wrestler to stuff Jabouin’s takedowns or work back to his feet. The latter scenario seems more likely to me, and the pick is Almeida by knockout in the third round.

Last Fights » The Prelims