Preview: UFC 182 ‘Jones vs. Cormier’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Hector Lombard (34-4-1, 3-2 UFC) vs. Josh Burkman (27-10, 5-5 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Veteran Burkman returns to the UFC after an absence of more than six years and gets a brutal matchup in Cuban Olympian Lombard. Burkman beat Tyler Stinson in the last of his five outings in the World Series of Fighting, while Lombard is 2-0 at welterweight, with wins over Jake Shields and Nate Marquardt. This is a huge opportunity for Burkman, while it is essentially a stay-busy fight for Lombard.

Lombard’s game revolves around his freakish explosiveness and physical tools -- more specifically, his ultra-quick and powerful hands. He leaps in with vicious right hooks and overhand lefts from his southpaw stance and favors uppercuts at close range. There is nothing particularly complicated about Lombard’s approach to range striking, although he counters well and occasionally mixes up shots to the body.

As one would expect from a high-level judoka, Lombard’s inside game is exceptional, with a fantastic arsenal of foot sweeps, trips and high-amplitude throws, along with hard knees, but his real genius lies in throwing brutal punches between and over his opponent’s arms in the transitions between punching distance and the clinch. He is almost impossible to take down, and from top position, he maintains a heavy base, works the occasional pass and throws solid ground strikes. The problem with Lombard’s approach is cardio and output. While he is exceptionally dangerous, his fights tend to be razor-thin if he does not land the big punch, and his suspect cardio leaves him vulnerable if the bout goes late.

Burkman is a well-rounded and athletic fighter with solid if not outstanding skills in every area. He moves fluidly between orthodox and southpaw at range and mixes sharp kicks with powerful combination boxing that works the body and head in sequence. From a technical perspective, Burkman is not an outstanding wrestler, but his raw strength and athleticism, combined with decent technique, make him difficult to get to the mat, and he chains together his takedown attempts nicely. On the ground, Burkman shows solid top control with decent strikes and can grab the occasional submission in transition, but he offers nothing from his back and struggles to regain his feet if taken down.

BETTING ODDS: Lombard (-700), Burkman (+500)

THE PICK: Burkman is not getting much love from the oddsmakers, and I think his durability -- he has never been knocked out in 37 fights -- gives him a better chance than the betting line indicates if this goes the distance, especially given Lombard’s cardio issues and limited offensive output. Still, this is a brutal matchup for a fighter who relies so heavily on his physical tools. Burkman is explosive and powerful, but Lombard is faster and packs a much bigger punch. If Burkman wants to bang this out in the pocket and the clinch, Lombard will likely become the first man to put him to sleep. The more likely scenario is Burkman putting in work with his kicks from distance while trying and failing to get takedowns, with Lombard landing big shots at close range, hitting the occasional throw and putting in time in top position. The pick is Lombard by decision.

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