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Melvin Manhoef (23-5-1) vs. Paulo Filho (16-1)

The Storyline: The list of fighters who have excelled in Japan but flopped in the United States -- and vice versa -- is endless. Filho fits into the first category. The judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt was one of the most feared competitors in Pride Fighting Championships, where he submitted distinguished opponents like Amar Suloev, Ryo Chonan and Kazuo Misaki.

In the US, the Brazilian won the World Extreme Cagefighting middleweight championship but toiled inside the UFC’s sister promotion. A complete loss of interest in the sport, coupled with a dangerous painkiller addiction, resulted in one of the most bizarre fights in recent memory -- his unanimous decision loss to Chael Sonnen at WEC 36. Can Filho get back into shape and strike fear into the 205-pound division?

The Breakdown: Three years ago, the outcome of this match would have been a no-brainer, as Filho was on top of his game and Manhoef had limited knowledge of ground fighting. While the latter has changed a bit, the much more crucial point for this fight remains whether or not Filho has regained his focus and trained properly.

Manhoef has been hot and cold in the past 12 months. An emphatic victory against Japanese legend Kazushi Sakuraba was followed by a disheartening 88-second loss to Gegard Mousasi. Manhoef bounced back with a brutal and totally unexpected 18-second knockout of his own against the iron-chinned Mark Hunt, then made a fool out of himself in a first-round KO loss to unknown Japanese K-1 fighter Keijiro Maeda.

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The Prediction: Filho appears to be back in the shape that helped him rack up 16 consecutive wins to start his career. Unless Manhoef can put one of his powerful haymakers on the chin of the short and stocky Brazilian within the first few seconds, Filho will collect another easy armbar victory.