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Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett

The man with the most misleading gimmick in all of MMA, “One Punch” Pickett is an altogether unexpected presence in the bantamweight contender scene. Fresh off a crackling fight with vaunted prospect Demetrious Johnson, Pickett now gets to show just how far his wrestling has come against the destroyer of tracheas known as Jorgensen.

While Jorgensen’s freakish grip strength is the star of his highlight reel, it’s his rapidly improving striking combined with proven wrestling skill that makes him such a sterling prospect. Pickett will be hard-pressed trying to score takedowns on him considering he will be missing the marked size advantage he enjoyed against Johnson.

In bouts with Antonio Banuelos and Takeya Mizugaki, Jorgensen proved he has both shutdown takedown defense and a surprising level of grappling skill off his back. With the improvements he has made in terms of his conditioning, Jorgensen isn’t going to lose a wrestling match to anyone at bantamweight and Pickett lacks the second dimension to truly threaten him with high-level offense.

That’s the difference in this fight, as Jorgensen’s recent embracing of the jab has taken his striking to a new level. Capable of ripping combinations in the clinch and just mauling people from range with his sharp 1-2, Jorgensen can sprawl and brawl his way to a win given Pickett’s severely oversold striking ability.

The only world-class skill Pickett brings to the table is his front headlock series, and that’s a very situation-specific asset. Jorgensen doesn’t get himself into many scrambles, and when he does he typically ends up dominating position. The dearth of offensive opportunities for Pickett will force him to pursue takedowns. That predictability does not bode well against Jorgensen’s dynamism.

“One Punch” will give Jorgensen a fight, but it won’t be a terribly competitive one. Expect to see Pickett get busted up on the feet before Jorgensen wrestles him down and simultaneously locks down both a submission and a title shot.