UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Story’ Preview

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Niklas Backstrom (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Mike Wilkinson (8-1, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Rising Swede Backstrom makes his second appearance in the Octagon after submitting Tom Niinimaki with a slick bulldog choke in May. Wilkinson, a veteran of “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes,” has been inactive since tapping to a Rony Mariano Bezerra triangle choke in June 2013. Backstrom is a potential star, and while Wilkinson is a long way from a tomato can, this is essentially a showcase matchup for the Swede.

Backstrom, a product of the Allstars Training Centers camp that has produced Reza Madadi, Ilir Latifi, Nicholas Musoke and Alexander Gustafsson, puts his enormous 6-foot frame to good use in every phase. He could stand to improve his punches, but Backstrom throws sharp front, round and elliptical kicks at all levels until he is ready to close the distance, which he often does with a flying knee. His height gives him ridiculous leverage in the clinch, where he delivers steady streams of sharp knees and elbows. He owns a diverse array of trips and high-amplitude throws that speak to a surprisingly technical wrestling game, which also manifests itself in well-timed reactive takedowns and generally solid takedown defense. An excellent all-around grappler, Backstrom passes guard with aplomb, owns a heavy base and drops dynamite punches and elbows from top position. He scrambles beautifully and has a knack for submissions in transition, as his unorthodox bulldog choke over Niinimaki demonstrated. If all of that were not enough to get you excited, Backstrom is also surprisingly quick and light on his feet for such a big featherweight.

The Englishman is hardly untalented. Nobody will confuse him with Adrien Broner, but Wilkinson has quick hands and a bit of power and is particularly fond of straight right-left hook counters in the pocket. While he is fairly predictable at range, Wilkinson is a surprisingly good wrestler, with explosive and well-timed shots and technical finishes on his takedowns. He generally maintains good posture from top position, throws solid ground strikes and is schooled in passes and submissions.

BETTING ODDS: Backstrom (-650), Wilkinson (+475)

THE PICK: Given Wilkinson’s layoff and Backstrom’s slick skills on the ground and in the clinch, it is easy to see why the Swede is such a substantial favorite. I expect him to engage Wilkinson at close range with knees and elbows, secure a takedown and finish him with ground strikes in the first or second round.

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