UFC Fight Night ‘Jacare vs. Mousasi 2’ Preview

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Lightweights

Joe Lauzon (23-9, 10-6 UFC) vs. Michael Chiesa (11-1, 4-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Longtime lightweight staple and reliable action fighter Lauzon takes on rising “Ultimate Fighter” winner Chiesa in a potentially thrilling fight. Lauzon is in the midst of a rough 2-3 stretch and may be entering the twilight of his career, while Chiesa is very much a fighter on his way up.

Chiesa’s style seems awkward and more than a bit ugly, but it is certainly effective. A limited striker, though one who is improving from fight to fight and even showing flashes of power, he relies on his lanky frame to provide leverage in the clinch and in grappling exchanges.

Although he is not a particularly powerful wrestler, he uses his strikes to cover his entries, chains together his takedowns and advances position smoothly in the clinch while filling the transitional spaces with well-timed strikes and submission attempts. Once the fight hits the mat, Chiesa really shines. He does a fantastic job of integrating his ground striking with his guard passes and excels at finding his opponent’s back and locking up rear-naked chokes, all the while maintaining a heavy base and control.

One of the UFC’s longest-tenured lightweights and a sure bet to put on an exciting fight, Lauzon is always looking for the finish. Mostly a boxer with underrated power in his hands, the Massachusetts native is perfectly willing and able to throw leather in the pocket, but he struggles with opponents who can use movement and angles to stay out of his wheelhouse; and he remains worrisomely hittable. He is a decent wrestler, though his tricky offensive guard means he rarely worries about being taken to the ground. From top position Lauzon is a beast, with hard ground strikes, smooth passes, a heavy base and a deep arsenal of submissions.

Betting Odds: Chiesa (-150), Lauzon (+120)

The Pick: This is a difficult fight to predict. To a great extent, it depends on Chiesa’s continued improvement and whether Lauzon has really dropped off from his peak. If Lauzon can keep the fight at range without planting his feet in the pocket too often and thereby exposing himself to takedowns, he can handily win a decision or even knock out Chiesa. However, that is not really his game. If it goes to the ground, Lauzon could submit Chiesa, but he would not be the first opponent to drastically underestimate the Washingtonian’s grappling and the leverage of his long frame. In sum, I think Chiesa has the tools to take a decision.

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