UFC Fight Night 32 Preview

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Welterweights

Paulo Thiago (15-5, 5-5 UFC) vs. Brandon Thatch (10-1, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: As recently as a few years ago, Thiago was recognized as one of the world’s 10 best welterweights. With losses in four of his last six bouts, the Brazilian has fallen on hard times. He rebounded somewhat in May, when he captured a hard-fought unanimous verdict over Michel Richard Cunha dos Prazeres at UFC on FX 8. Even then, Thiago had his struggles, as Prazeres had success landing kicks at all levels early in the bout and battled his veteran foe to a near-stalemate in the final frame. Coming off resounding losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Siyar Bahadurzada, a win in any fashion was welcome for Thiago. However, his difficulty combating Prazeres’ kicks could prove problematic against Thatch.

Anchored at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, the 6-foot-2 Thatch has emerged as a prospect to watch in recent years. The muay Thai specialist has finished all of his victories inside of a round, with only two foes lasting longer than two minutes. That trend did not change in Thatch’s Octagon debut -- an 83-second TKO of Justin Edwards at UFC Fight Night 27. Additionally, Thatch received positive accolades from Georges St. Pierre after training with the reigning welterweight king at Tristar Gym prior to his bout with Nick Diaz in March.

All of this seems to suggest that Thatch is on his way up, while Thiago is on his way out. However, Thiago is the most seasoned opponent Thatch has faced, as the Constrictor Team representative has squared off with the likes of Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Martin Kampmann and Diego Sanchez during his UFC tenure.

While Thiago is more of a counterstriker, Thatch is all about overwhelming his foes. He can switch stances, land a variety of flashy kicks and is especially brutal with knees in the clinch. Once he senses a finish is near, Thatch is relentless in attacking with knees, punches and kicks.

Since all of Thatch’s triumphs have been abbreviated affairs, it will be interesting to see how he responds if Thiago is able to extend the fight. The Brazilian is not a world-beater on the feet, but he is able to remain composed in tight spots. On the ground, Thiago has an active submission game and is usually adept at creating scrambles and reversing into advantageous positions. Thus far, Thatch’s lanky frame has allowed him to control foes on the mat; he also transitions well when pursuing submissions.

The Pick: Thatch is clearly the better striker, and he is well-rounded enough to survive on the floor. Thatch wins by decision.

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