UFC 95 Breakdown: The Main Card

Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

Nate “The Great” Marquardt Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/185 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Lander, Wyo.
Fighting out of: Denver
Record: 27-8-2

The breakdown: Coming off a trademark performance against Martin Kampmann, Marquardt now gets an even tougher task in Wilson Gouveia, who is coming off an impressive performance of his own against Jason MacDonald. Keeping the versatile Gouveia from employing his offensive dynamism will be key for Marquardt. He must control the terms of the fight to control Gouveia. Using his strong clinch game and top control to wear on Gouveia’s iffy conditioning should be Marquardt’s focus, as Gouveia falters when opponents get in his grill and go to work.

The X factor: Of late, Marquardt has been favoring his striking to great effect, but Gouveia’s reach and leg kicks make him dangerous at range. If Marquardt gambles by going toe-to-toe with Gouveia, he may not have the chance to change strategy before Gouveia leaves him in a heap.

Wilson Gouveia Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 30
Hometown: Fortaleza, Brazil
Fighting out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
Record: 12-5

The breakdown: Few fighters in the middleweight division are as dangerous as Marquardt in close quarters, and Gouveia’s style simply does not favor trench wars. With that in mind, the American Top Team product has to control distance by being aggressive with leg kicks, which could rob Marquardt of his strong base. From there, Gouveia could get more aggressive and work in more punches and even some groundwork on a weakened Marquardt. Either way, if Gouveia lets Marquardt crowd him, he will be throwing away his best hope for victory.

The X-Factor: Cardio has always been a concern when Gouveia is involved, and against a mauler like Marquardt, he has to come in ready for an exhausting fight. If Gouveia comes in with his usual five minutes’ worth of cardio, he will end up taking 15 minutes worth of abuse.

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The bottom line: As impressive as Gouveia can be in short spurts, he will need a sustained offensive to beat Marquardt; it’s doubtful his cardio holds up very well against the relentless work-rate Marquardt maintains. Bank on Marquardt taking over in the latter stages of the bout and claiming a hard-earned decision.