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FIGHT ODDS

UFC 169 ‘Barao vs. Faber 2’ Preview

Tristen CritchfieldJan 29, 2014
John Lineker sports 14 finishes among his 23 career wins. | Photo: Gleidson Venga/Sherdog.com


Flyweights

John Lineker (23-6, 4-1 UFC) vs. Ali Bagautinov (12-2, 2-0 UFC)

The Matchup: Until he is able to either permanently resolve the problem or moves up one division, making weight will remain a key issue for Lineker as a UFC flyweight. The Brazilian has already failed to meet his contracted limit three times. At this point, that has been about the only thing hindering his rise to title contention, as he has been a destructive force during his current four-fight winning streak.

Lineker’s aggression and willingness to go for broke in exchanges make him one of the sport’s most entertaining flyweights. He can overwhelm opponents with his barrage of power punches, particularly hooks and uppercuts. Those unable to maintain composure or utilize consistent movement are almost inevitably doomed. With that said, Lineker has been fairly predictable thus far, but he has not needed much beyond heavy hands and a sturdy chin. That could change against Bagautinov, who not only hits hard but is a skilled sambo specialist who excels in scrambles and transitions.

Bagautinov defeated Tim Elliott in his most recent outing at UFC 167 -- a victory that arguably surpasses anything Lineker has accomplished in the Octagon. Elliott is a large, powerful flyweight, yet he was never able to grind down Bagautinov despite utilizing consistent pressure. The Russian was able to circle out of danger for the most part and counter effectively as his opponent moved forward.

Lineker’s tendency to throw wide strikes will leave him open to crisp straight counters from Bagautinov. In addition to having fast and powerful hands, Bagautinov is incredibly tough. Most pro fighters fit that description, but someone who once continued to fight after losing part of an ear, as Bagautinov once did, is on another level.

Bagautinov’s ability to win the grappling exchanges could prove to be the difference, because prolonged periods on the feet against Lineker, who is a master of alternating shots between the head and body, are risky. Bagautinov is a smart striker, as well, using punching combinations to set up his kicks and knees.

Conditioning could play a major role. Lineker’s style is draining if a quick finish does not arrive, while Bagautinov appeared to tire as a result of all his movement in the later portion of his bout with Elliott.

The Pick: Bagautinov keeps Lineker guessing and wins via submission in round two or three.

Next Fight » Jamie Varner vs. Abel Trujillo