UFC 163 ‘Aldo vs. Korean Zombie’ Preview

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Middleweights

Tom Watson (16-5, 1-1 UFC) vs. Thales Leites (20-4, 5-3 UFC)

The Matchup: It has been nearly three years since Leites last set foot in the Octagon, as he dropped a split decision to Alessio Sakara at UFC 101 in his second consecutive loss within the promotion.

Just one fight prior, Leites served as a most unlikely challenger for the middleweight crown, losing a five-round decision to Anderson Silva in one of the least memorable headliners in UFC history. The Nova Uniao product has since righted his ship, winning six of seven fights and besting the likes of Dean Lister, Jesse Taylor, Jeremy Horn, Tor Troeng and Matt Horwich in the process. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will probably never be a renowned striker, but he has done enough to earn another shot in the world’s largest MMA organization.

A former British Association of Mixed Martial Arts champion, Watson showcased impressive close-quarters offense in a second-round stoppage of Stanislav Nedkov at UFC on Fuel TV 7. The Brit battered his foe repeatedly with knees while mixing in elbows and punches to the body against the fence, this after nearly being finished by Nedkov in the opening frame. Perhaps the greatest concern for Watson, which also surfaced in a split decision defeat at the hands of Brad Tavares in his UFC debut, is his ability to remain upright against Leites.

While not always the most accurate takedown artist, the Brazilian is persistent in his efforts to get the fight to the floor, where he can employ suffocating top control and a wicked submission game. Watson was taken down a combined 10 times by Tavares and Nedkov, but to his credit, he was often able to return to his feet. However, Leites is much more adept at transitioning to advantageous positions on the floor than either of those opponents.

Leites must use his strikes to set up takedowns; otherwise, he ends up shooting from too far away, which will leave him vulnerable to a variety of attacks from Watson. The Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts representative is a solid kickboxer capable of mixing kicks to the legs and body. Leites has been known to engage on the feet for longer than he should, and if Watson can bait him into a standup affair, the advantage will be his. As he showed against Nedkov, Watson is also dangerous in the clinch, but he must be wary of his opponent’s ability to land trips and throws from this position.

The Pick: Watson figures to be more active offensively than Leites, who is known for periods of inactivity. As long as “Kong” can avoid spending significant periods of time on his back, he takes a decision.

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