UFC 146 ‘Dos Santos vs. Mir’ Preview

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Heavyweights

Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Nelson ended his UFC 143 bout with Fabricio Werdum a bloody mess after the Brazilian battered him repeatedly with knees to the face and body from the clinch. To his credit, “Big Country” went the distance, a testament to his heart and toughness even in the face of a serious beating. Nelson took to social media recently to tease his fans that a move to light heavyweight would be imminent if he received enough “Likes” on his Facebook page. It is unclear as to whether “The Ultimate Fighter 10” winner truly plans on dropping weight anytime in the near future. For now, he remains an ample-bellied heavyweight capable of absorbing massive amounts of punishment while still coming forward.

Considering that all three of his UFC losses have come to Top 10 opponents, Nelson figures to have a more manageable task in Herman. The Sengoku veteran started quickly in his last outing against Stefan Struve but faded after a round and lost by second-round TKO. Nelson has faced cardio issues before, as well, and whoever brings the better gas tank into this matchup will have a significant advantage.

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Herman has been known to get wild on the feet. His bag of tricks includes exotic kicks and various other flying attacks. His risk-taking approach leaves him susceptible to counters and takedowns, both of which a savvy veteran like Nelson can capitalize on. The Las Vegas resident is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who can dominate a fight with suffocating top control. Though not a submission machine, Nelson is excellent at passing guard and imposing his will with a steady diet of punches from side control.

Herman demonstrated an ability to escape from his back at UFC 131, where he was able to twice get to his feet after being taken down by 2003 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold medalist John Olav Einemo. At some point, he will have to do the same against Nelson or risk losing rounds.

The Pick: Nelson will move forward with one-two combinations in hopes of initiating the clinch, from which he can execute trip takedowns. Herman will have to make him pay with knees against the fence. Considering it was something Junior dos Santos was unable to accomplish, the chances of Herman knocking out Nelson are slim. Meanwhile, Herman must also be wary of Nelson’s overhand right, which can end a fight in the blink of an eye. Nelson wins by decision.

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