UFC 127 Preview: The Main Card

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Welterweights
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole

The Matchup: With Carlos Condit dropping out due to injury, Ebersole replaces him on a little more than two weeks’ notice. The veteran has a boatload of bouts across multiple weight classes, having lost to much larger foes in heavyweight Kerry Schall and light heavyweight Stephan Bonner. However, Ebersole has bested recognizable opponents in ex-UFC welterweight kingpin Carlos Newton, former Bodog Fight champion Nick Thompson, one-time International Fight League titleholder Matt Horwich and WEC veteran Alex Serdyukov.

Lytle comes to bang and should be especially willing to do so if Ebersole cannot plant him on the ground and dictate the fight. He remains on the short list of the game’s most durable fighters, as he has only been finished twice, each time on cuts, first against Joe Riggs and later against Thiago Alves. In both of those bouts, Lytle was coming on strong when the stoppages occurred. His professional boxing experience and comfort with sliding and rolling with shots serve him well, as he counters expertly in the pocket, mixing in the occasional kick and sometimes throwing shots from weird angles.

Top wrestlers have held down Lytle and grounded him to a decision -- Josh Koscheck battered him mercilessly, leaving pools of Lytle’s blood all over the Octagon -- and that could become a problem here. A former college wrestler who has trained at the American Kickboxing Academy, Ebersole could hold the keys to an upset.

A key variable available to Lytle is how effectively he uses his defensive wrestling to keep the action standing. Ebersole is not in the same league as Koscheck or Jon Fitch, and he will have problems as long as he stands against Lytle, who excels in striking-based matches.

Given the short notice on which he accepted the bout, Ebersole figures to try and fight the smartest fight. He will have to earn at least a little respect standing before trying to close for a shoot or clinch. Even if he does get it down, however, Lytle’s excellent jiu-jitsu and uncanny ability to survive from his back are considerable obstacles. He is patient when put there and can absorb a terrific pounding while looking for ways to get back to his feet.

Look for Lytle to adjust his game plan to Ebersole’s wrestling tactics, using movement to deny him angles and hoping to take it deep as a fallback in case he cannot make something significant happen early. Lytle’s conditioning is solid, as well, and he should be able to work through a takedown and attempts at ground-and-pound from Ebersole.

Ebersole’s striking and striking defense have improved since his earlier in his career, as he has become somewhat more comfortable on his feet. In a four-round loss to gifted Bellator Fighting Championships titleholder Hector Lombard in September 2008, he put up a decent scrap against one of the best middleweights in the world.

The Pick: Condit’s injury scrapped a bout that was an odds-on favorite for “Fight of the Night,” but this one could still be entertaining. Lytle should do just enough to strike effectively and deny Ebersole effective action if he scores a takedown. Lytle wins by late submission or decision.

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