UFC 115 Preview: The Main Card

Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann

Someone in the UFC matchmaking department clearly has a grudge against Paulo Thiago, who continues his trudge through a welterweight murderer’s row against Xtreme Couture disciple Martin Kampmann. With the UFC welterweight crown on hold until Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck wrap up their TUF commitment, the winner of this bout will be in prime position for a title eliminator match.

For Kampmann this bout basically comes down to two things: keeping his chin under wraps and staying out of the front headlock position at all costs. The two are very much tied to each other. Thiago will often look for the front headlock on dazed opponents, and Kampmann’s blitzing style often leaves him exposed to counters. The tradeoff is that Kampmann can put together fluid punching combinations and is especially good at generating power in small spaces.

That is the biggest advantage Kampmann has on Thiago, who tends to throw wide and thus needs more room to get his punches off. The way Thiago gets around that flaw is by deftly giving ground on charging opponents and quickly stepping back in with power punches -- a ploy that will give Kampmann fits whenever he tries to collapse the pocket. The alternative for Kampmann is staying on the outside, where he can rely on leg kicks and one-two combinations, but he has never shown a willingness to work that way for extended periods of time.

If Kampmann is going to try for a change of pace, it’ll be with his Greco-Roman skills. This again puts him right in Thiago’s wheelhouse. Despite being far from a fundamentally sound wrestler, Thiago is great at creating scrambles off attempted takedowns and reversing position. While Kampmann has shown solid submission defense before, he has yet to face someone who poses the threat Thiago does.

Should Thiago land in top control at some point off a scramble, Kampmann will be especially vulnerable because he struggles to escape back to his feet and often settles into the guard. Not a good idea against Thiago, who advances position beautifully and has the awareness to quickly grab a hold of submissions during scrambles. It may not always look pretty, but Thiago has serious game anywhere a fight can go.

The perception that Kampmann is out of his depth in this fight is definitely unfair to his abilities, and Thiago’s in-cage listlessness often makes his fights closer than they have to be. With all that said, this is one of the worst style clashes in the division for Kampmann. Thiago’s ability to hit a homerun on the feet and the mat is a brutal combination to overcome. While a stoppage wouldn’t be surprising, Kampmann is as rugged as they come: Expect Thiago to settle for a clear-cut decision win.