UFC 114 Preview: The Main Card

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz

After he starched Luis Arthur Cane at UFC 106, the list of fighters willing to fight Nogueira had to shrink considerably. When Forrest Griffin was forced to pull out of this fight less than a month ago, it was hard to imagine who would be brave and/or crazy enough to take on “Minotoro” on such short notice. That distinction belongs to Brilz, who will make a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap against arguably the most underappreciated fighter of the past decade.

Finally in the UFC after several years of bouncing around promotions in search of quality opponents, Nogueira put the world on notice when he effortlessly dismantled Cane. However, his 2009 fight with Vladimir Matyushenko should worry Brilz more. Much like Matyushenko, Brilz’s wrestling chops may be overstated, and he has developed into more of a dirty boxer than anything else. In his fight with Nogueira, Matyushenko tried to close the pocket and rough up the Brazilian but instead repeatedly ran into punching combinations and knees to the body.

Nogueira has proven adept at catching opponents coming in and using his movement to evade the clinch. That strategy will be especially effective against Brilz, who fights flat-footed and has been vulnerable to rangy fighters who can pick at him from afar. Even if Brilz manages to collapse the pocket, Nogueira’s hand speed and smooth hooking combinations can carry him there.

Never mind the possibility of this fight hitting the ground, where Nogueira remains arguably the best guard player in the division. Brilz seemed hesitant to take down Eric Schafer, and it seems unlikely he would try his luck against a next-level grappler like Nogueira. Again, this assumes Brilz can even get him to the ground, which depends more on Nogueira’s willingness to pull guard.

For whatever reason, Brilz seems to lack urgency and has oftentimes looked content to ride out decisions inside the clinch. As a result, he has been ineffective when he cannot get to the clinch, and Nogueira possesses the reach and boxing to keep the pocket open. There are not many light heavyweights out there who have any chance of beating Nogueira in a long-range boxing match.

Nogueira has proven a stylistic nightmare for anyone dependant on fighting at a specific range. Brilz fits that bill perfectly and lacks the secondary skills to give Nogueira a different look and keep him guessing. The difference in pure technical ability will manifest itself in particularly violent fashion, as Brilz ends up as the latest addition to Nogueira’s ever-growing collection of finishes.