UFC 111 Preview: The Main Card

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes

The Breakdown: After botching his UFC debut against Caol Uno at UFC 106 thanks to a point deduction and a late gas out, the road is starting to look like a Cormac McCarthy novel for Fabricio Camoes. He now has to take on veteran contender Kurt Pellegrino. A winner of three straight Octagon bouts, Pellegrino is inching his way back to title contention, but a loss to Camoes would land him right back in his old position of resident gatekeeper.

That means sticking to the usual strategy of ground-and-pound mixed in with jiu-jitsu savvy, but Camoes showed stout takedown defense in his bout with Uno. Further complicating matters is Camoes’ surprisingly accurate albeit sloppy striking, which could give Pellegrino problems if his takedowns fail him.

The problem here for Camoes is that he’s not going to finish Pellegrino with striking alone, and tapping him out seems just as unlikely. The longer this bout wears on, the more it favors Pellegrino’s experience and conditioning. Considering Camoes has yet to show a particularly astute guard at this level, he’ll be in for more bad luck if he doesn’t show up with a bigger gas tank.

The Bottom Line: This just isn’t the right fight for a developing fighter like Camoes. Pellegrino isn’t going to stand and trade with him or give him any openings to work with on the mat. The pressure of constantly defending takedowns is going to wear on Camoes as well, and three rounds of frustration will end with him losing a unanimous decision.