F. Haas/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: Watch some tape of Davis and two things will become obvious. One is that he’s a talented prospect and the other is that he’s nowhere near ready for the UFC. Less than two years’ worth of training and a few fights on the local circuit is poor preparation for the Octagon, but Stann hasn’t exactly justified his promotion from the WEC either.
The first-round knockouts that Stann was known for in the WEC have turned into ho-hum decisions in the UFC because he relies more on volume and accuracy than power in his striking. That’s all well and good, but barring a brain transplant between now and Saturday, Davis will have no interest in striking with Stann.
Davis being a former Division 1 national wrestling champion comes with the luxury of being able to take down almost anything with two legs. Defending Davis’ takedowns will be an especially daunting task for Stann since he tends to work with his back close to the cage and he’s got a stance that’s straighter than Clint Eastwood.
Keeping your stance that upright makes defending single or double legs borderline impossible, and not taking the center of the Octagon means it’s only a matter of time before you get sandwiched between your opponent and the cage. Stann can afford neither of those, as Krzysztof Soszynski already exposed his porous guard in their bout at UFC 97.
It’ll be a long time before anyone compares Davis’ grappling to Soszynski’s, but he is a natural at guard passing and his aptitude for submissions shone through when he busted out the serial killer choke on David Baggett at UCFC “Rumble on the Rivers.” Although Penn State’s premier takedown machine has issues with proper positioning on the ground, he has the basics down pretty well and his steadily improving ground-and-pound makes for a solid backup plan.
The Bottom Line: This is not necessarily an easy fight for Davis. His chin has never been tested, and Stann is roughly 5,345 times better than anyone he’s fought before. None of that, however, changes the fact that Stann’s weaknesses spell out a money matchup for Davis. A finish is likely beyond the reach of Davis’ still limited offense, but a 30-27 trio of scorecards in his favor won’t be.