UFC 109 Preview: The Main Card

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

The Breakdown: No matter how you look at this fight, Miller is pretty well screwed if he plans on winning with his usual combination of equal parts Brazilian jiu-jitsu and wrestling. It’s been shown time and time again that hitting the floor with Maia is like signing up for a voluntary root canal, only more painful.

Even if Miller tries to smother Maia with top control, there is no way he’ll stay mistake-free considering Maia’s innate ability to force his style of grappling on his opponents. The gap in skill on the ground is so great that it should be a given that Miller will try to keep this fight vertical.

Nate Marquardt already proved in their match at UFC 102 that Maia’s striking is easily exploited, but his success depended on Maia foolishly trying to play kickboxer. It would be hard to imagine Maia repeating that mistake with the memory of his first loss still fresh in his mind. Plus it’s not like Miller’s wrestling is so good that he can force Maia to strike with him.

Maia has proven in his UFC run that he can get supposedly superior wrestlers to fall into his web of twisted limbs on the mat. Just watch his fights and you’ll see Maia display far more wrestling skill than he ever gets credit for, and when all else fails, he’s one of the few in the game who knows how to pull guard effectively.

Whatever time Miller gets on the feet won’t be enough for him to score the knockout he needs. Even assuming a vast advantage on the feet for Miller is a bit of a stretch considering he’s never had to rely on his striking. More likely than not, his haste to score a knockout will leave him vulnerable to a takedown, and any opening Miller gives Maia, no matter how small, is all the Brazilian submission artist will need.

The Bottom Line: There likely isn’t a middleweight in the UFC who can hang with Maia on the mat, and Miller isn’t the exception. Another Submission of the Night will make its way to Maia’s mantle as he locks up a textbook triangle choke from his guard in the first round.