Lucio Linhares photo by H. Hujala/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: The jiu-jitsu special pits the debuting Linhares against Palhares, who is looking to revive his aborted title run. Most fights between purebred grapplers come down to wrestling, and that will be especially important in this bout as both fighters rely on top control as much as submission savvy.
If that’s what this fight comes down to, it clearly favors Palhares. He has a slick outside leg sweep and can physically overpower a Sherman tank. Working off your back against Palhares is about as much fun as a Sandra Bullock movie, and Linhares’ loose guard will be a liability once Palhares starts looking to either pass or ground-and-pound.
Although striking is a major chink in Palhares’ game, Linhares’ isn’t much of a striker himself and doesn’t have the tools to stave off Palhares’ bulrush takedowns. Unless Linhares can contain Palhares on the mat, he’ll end up having to choose what part of his body he’s willing to have snapped in half.
The X-Factor: Using a loose guard can be a wise move when done properly, and Linhares can use it to keep Palhares from keeping the methodical pace he prefers. Creating scrambles and forcing Palhares to defend submission attempts is the only way Linhares can keep this bout from getting away from him, but it will also give Palhares plenty of opportunities to pass guard. How Linhares strikes that delicate balance will play heavily into his chances.
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The Bottom Line: This just isn’t a good fight for Linhares, who plays too loose on the mat to stop Palhares’ suffocating style from shutting him down. A textbook jiu-jitsu display from Palhares culminates with him taking back control and turning Linhares’ lights out with a rear-naked choke.