UFC 105 Preview: The Prelims

Paul Kelly vs. Dennis Siver

The Breakdown: After shedding 30 pounds over the last few years, Kelly now calls the lightweight class home. Here, he finds himself slotted against Siver, a man desperate to break out of his gatekeeper role. Minimal takedown defense has been Siver’s fatal flaw, and Kelly’s no-nonsense ground-and-pound was tailor-made to shut down converted kickboxers like Siver.

While we have seen flashes of submission skill from Siver before, Kelly showed patient defense and sound positioning in his bout with Roli Delgado at UFC 99. More importantly, Kelly now knows what to expect from the cut to 155 pounds, meaning we should see a fighter more reminiscent of the bulldog on PCP that wrestle-stomped the likes of Paul Taylor and Troy Mandaloniz.

The X-Factor: Scoring takedowns has not been a problem for Kelly, but finishing fights has proven a frustrating experience for him against UFC-caliber competition. Grinding out a 15-minute decision means shutting down Siver’s offense for the entire duration; that seems like a tall order considering the German will pose a threat for as long as his gas tank holds up.

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The Bottom Line: Siver will make life interesting for Kelly, but the end-game will be all too predictable, as the Englishman takes a clear-cut decision win via the top control special.