UFC 105 Preview: The Main Card

James Wilks vs. Matt Brown

The Breakdown: As one of two “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners making his formal UFC debut, Wilks has no easy road waiting for him. Brown’s savage slugging represents his first obstacle. This will turn into a clash of weaknesses, as Brown’s ground game remains suspect and Wilks will likely get his face rearranged if he tries to trade blows.

Brown’s ability, or potential lack thereof, to stop Wilks’ takedown attempts matters most. Wilks excels at closing the pocket, but his wrestling does not appear all that sharp and Brown’s brute physicality could be enough to dissuade him from stepping inside. If that turns out to be the case, Wilks might as well flop to the mat and wait for the end to come.

The X-Factor: If Wilks can secure a takedown, Brown goes from dominant to prone, as his mediocre mat game has kept him cast in a gatekeeper role. Keep an eye on how Brown controls range early; if he fails at it, he will be tapping soon afterwards.

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The Bottom Line: In another pick ’em fight, gamble on Wilks cinching a submission after some early difficulties from Brown’s fists. Arena security will undoubtedly be hoping for a Wilks victory since it will make their night’s work that much easier. The Brits do not take well to losing.