UFC 103 Preview: The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

The Breakdown: After an extended vacation from the UFC, Trigg returns to face what haunted him throughout his first run in the Octagon -- an elite wrestler. Any way you approach it, Koscheck is one of the best wrestlers in the game, and Trigg’s time as an elite welterweight was given an unceremonious end at the hands of dominant wrestlers -- namely, Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. If this turns into a wrestling match, Koscheck is not only the vastly superior overall wrestler, his jiu-jitsu is solid as well and Trigg is notorious for guard work that resembles the death throes of someone being eaten alive (not pretty).

The only reason this fight isn’t a slam dunk for Koscheck is that he’s taken to running himself off the cliff like a B-grade Wile E. Coyote lately. For whatever reason, he has been acting like a boxer his last three fights and, not surprisingly, he’s got a 1-2 record to match. I’m all for fighters becoming versatile but not when it’s more self-destructive than dating Chris Brown. As we saw in Koscheck’s bout with Thiago Alves, all it takes is a few stuffed takedowns to draw Koscheck into a firefight. While that still doesn’t guarantee Trigg the W he so desperately needs, it’s probably his only hope.

The X Factor: While Koscheck’s fans hope he’s regained his senses and reverts back to his ground-and-pound ways, the more pragmatic observer has to wonder if he has lost the edge on his wrestling after going more than a year without using it effectively. Skills are not static. The less you use them, the more they lose their effectiveness. In all fairness, Trigg’s wrestling ability has faded, but it may not matter if Koscheck has lost that extra gear on his supersonic shot.

The Bottom Line: This fight is a bitter slice of reality for Trigg. He isn’t the fighter he used to be and, even at his best, Koscheck is a better version of him. Expect Trigg to try and press Koscheck on the feet, which is the exact opposite of what he should do considering both Alves and Paulo Thiago found success by letting Koscheck come to them. Regardless of what Trigg does, bank on Koscheck’s trainers at AKA getting him back to focusing on double legs instead of overhand rights. Once Koscheck gets Trigg on his back, start taking bets on how long it takes for the tapout.