UFC 100 Preview: The Main Card

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

The Breakdown: After scoring an improbable come-from behind knockout win over Josh Koscheck at UFC 95, Thiago will have to face Fitch, Koscheck’s teammate and mauler extraordinaire. Contrary to whatever impression he left in his UFC debut, Thiago is hardly a striker and would much rather use his submissions to tie opponents in knots. Managing that feat will be a tall order against the air-tight submission defense of Fitch, who has made a career out of thwarting jiu-jitsu players. Unless Thiago has some more magic in him, he may find the chance to show his true colors in the cage to be just another chance for Fitch to do what he almost always does -- win.

The X Factor: Besides showing a solid punch, Thiago proved he can take a shot -- or seven -- by absorbing Koscheck’s powerful strikes and finding the resolve to fire back with his own. Odds are Thiago will have to take some major league mauling from Fitch, but he only needs a split second to find an opening and dynamite it wide open. Thought hardly the most glamorous strategy, Thiago needs to forget the KO he holds on Koscheck and remember his paychecks depend on his jiu-jitsu credentials.

***

The Bottom Line: Five seconds of offense has not made anyone forget that Thiago looked severely out of his depth against Koscheck, and it will get even worse against Fitch’s no-nonsense style. Known for his excellent game planning and disciplined approach, Fitch is custom-made to take out anyone who relies on one facet of the game to make hay. Recent knockout notwithstanding, Thiago is a straight-forward grappler, and he’s going to catch a straight-forward beatdown from Fitch.