‘The Ultimate Fighter 8’ Finale Breakdown

Jason MacDonald vs. Wilson Gouveia

MacDonald Scouting Report
Height/Weight: 6’3/185 lbs.
Age: 33
Hometown: New Glasgow, Nova Scotia, Canada
Fighting out of: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Record: 21-10

The stakes: One of the middleweight division’s go-to gatekeepers, MacDonald’s being called on yet again to play that role against Gouveia, a former light heavyweight. With a win over another weight-cutting wonder in Jason Lambert already under his belt, taking out Gouveia may be just what MacDonald needs to jumpstart his stalled run at the middleweight title.

The breakdown: While MacDonald’s hardly an MMA maestro, he excels at working submissions from top control, and his takedowns are often just enough to land him in a position to work his game. In Gouveia, he gets an opponent with lacking takedown defense, a strong grappling background and unrefined but powerful striking. If MacDonald cannot get that takedown early, this could play out like a repeat of his bout with former champion Rich Franklin at UFC 68.

Gouveia Scouting Report
Height/Weight: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 30
Hometown: Fortaleza, Brazil
Fighting out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
Record: 11-5

The stakes: After a promising light heavyweight run was short circuited by Goran Reljic, Gouveia rebounded with an entertaining win over Ryan Jensen in his middleweight debut at UFC Fight Night 15. With Anderson Silva moonlighting at 205 pounds, the middleweight division’s sorely in need of legitimate contenders. Gouveia could easily gain the inside track with a strong showing against MacDonald.

The breakdown: Although Gouveia’s ground game’s solid, he generally feasted on the sub-standard grapplers at light heavyweight; the middleweight division presents a far more formidable challenge in that regard. With that in mind, Gouveia would do well to use his leg kicks to Rob MacDonald of his base and turn this into a kickboxing match that his Canadian counterpart would be hard-pressed to survive.


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The bottom line: Slick as Gouveia’s offense may be, his conditioning -- he failed to make weight for this fight -- has long been an issue, and I have a hard time seeing him stuffing MacDonald’s takedowns long enough to score a KO. Watch for another workmanlike performance from MacDonald, as he wears out Gouveia with disciplined top control before advancing position and cinching a submission early in the second round.